Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class IV Part II [9.15.15]
EdgeCast
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The Importance of Counterfactuals in the Legal System
Super forecasters don't have much respect for taboo boundaries on cognition. They're willing to tolerate the dissonant thought that, yeah, I could easily be married to somebody else. So superforecasters, their minds are wired up in different ways. And how do they think about possible paths sheds valuable light on that? Okay. It also connects, so I hope that helps to clarify some of the confusion about why we're talking about counterfactuals.
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