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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class IV Part II [9.15.15]

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The Cognitive Bias in Thinking Fast and Slow

I think it's something that's worth doing, especially if you're in an organization where you care about augmenting accuracy. And then what's the criticism of the cognitive bias when people say it doesn't work? I don't have a clear answer to that question, but I can ask another one, which is very very likely. To what extent are the biases that impair the accuracy of subjective probability of some as possible futures? That would require a much larger and more expensive tournament still to do that. Now I may have some hunches about it, but there would be nothing more than hunches. Some people have a core intelligence, have that. So since you'd like to do some

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