Introduction

I want to clear up some confusions from last time about counterfactual reasoning and how it's intertwined with super forecasting. And I want to talk a little bit about this thing here, condensing it all into four big problems and one killer app solution. So let me give you two very concrete examples of how super forecasting is correlated to how people think about the past and possible past ways things could have been. First, a famous economist, Albert Hirschman, had a wonderful phrase called self subversion. Some people thought were capable of thinking in self subverting ways.