Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class IV Part II [9.15.15]
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The Phillips Curve and the Unthinkable Trade-Offs
Danny Cevallos: There are no explicit trade-offs about how many, how much collateral damage is successful in order to get a terrorist of a certain level of importance. He says super forecasters don't rise very high in deeply politicized organizations such as the CIA or Department of Defense. "These are trade-offs that are unthinkably, that you don't want to have expressed," he says.
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