At Any Rate

Finnish-born Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey, both from JP Morgan’s emerging market strategy team, dive into the shifting landscape of emerging markets post-summer. They discuss the impact of U.S. labor market data on growth expectations and investment strategies. Key insights include Bolivia’s political optimism, Venezuela’s uncertainties amid IMF talks, and Argentina’s challenges ahead of elections. The duo also analyzes sovereign credit spreads and the potential recovery in fund flows across Asia, EMEA, and LATAM, emphasizing how political developments shape market fundamentals.

Dive into the intriguing world of Scandinavian rates as the hosts discuss the current state of NIBOR rates and expected changes from Norges Bank and Riksbank. They analyze the delicate balance of the STIBOR-URIBOR spread, highlighting the economic factors at play. The narrowing Sweden 10-year benchmark spread takes center stage, driven by government fiscal strategies and global dynamics. Join in as they assess Norway's economic landscape and the potential repercussions of inflation on labor markets and domestic demand.

Khagendra Gupta, an Analyst at J.P. Morgan Global Research, shares insights on the Euro area and UK rate markets as they shake off summer slowdowns. He discusses the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and its implications for interest rates and inflation. The conversation dives into trends like the unusual swap spreads and shifting pricing strategies, while exploring appealing carry and volatility tactics. Gupta also highlights the rise in UK gilt yields and the fiscal challenges impacting future market dynamics.

Raphael Brun-Aguerre from JPMorgan's European economics team and Aditya Chordia, a European rate strategist, dive into the intricate ties between French political dynamics and macroeconomic outlooks. They discuss President Macron's strategies for navigating political instability and the implications for investment behaviors. The conversation pivots to the impact of political announcements on bond markets and the widening spreads between French and German bonds. They also explore trends in the Eurodollar landscape amid fiscal uncertainties, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Ben Jarman, a Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategist at J.P. Morgan, offers valuable insights on the dollar's current performance and the impact of unexpected central bank decisions on growth and inflation. He discusses New Zealand's dovish monetary policy and its effects on the Kiwi dollar. The conversation dives into dollar inflows into U.S. assets, highlighting their significance against a backdrop of declining dollar strength. Additionally, Jarman analyzes capital flows and economic indicators in the UK, revealing investor sentiment in response to fiscal changes.

Francis Diamond and Frida Infante dive into the evolving landscape of inflation in the Eurozone and UK. They discuss a notable decline in core inflation trends and predict future inflation expectations. The conversation highlights the harmonized index of consumer prices and recent developments affecting the UK’s inflation outlook. Additionally, they analyze UK inflation break-evens, emphasizing their potential value amid uncertainties. Finally, a transatlantic perspective contrasts US and European inflation dynamics, urging attention to fixed income trends.

Morten Lund, an expert on Scandinavian economics from J.P. Morgan, joins James Nelligan, an FX researcher, to delve into the macroeconomic landscape of Sweden and Norway. They discuss how ongoing trade wars could dampen growth in Sweden while forecasting a bright future for Norway's economy, fueled by strong consumer confidence. Expect insights on the monetary policies of Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank, as well as the impact of central bank strategies on currency fluctuations, particularly the NOK and SEK.

James Nelligan, a Senior FX strategist at JPMorgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA and Latam Local Markets Strategy, dive into the future of the US dollar and the factors behind its potential decline. They discuss key geopolitical events affecting currency markets and analyze the implications of a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conversation also covers the dynamics of GBP amid UK economic challenges and the effects of Scandi central bank policies. With insights on emerging markets, it’s a deep exploration of currency strategy amidst global uncertainty.

Discussing the upcoming rollover of US and Eurex bond futures, the conversation navigates macroeconomic trends and Federal Reserve easing expectations. Challenges in analyzing Eurex futures due to limited data are explored, focusing on asset managers' strategies to reduce delivery risks. Key factors affecting funding rates and calendar spreads are also analyzed, revealing their influence on bond yield movements and market positioning. Tune in for intriguing insights on the dynamic landscape of futures trading!

Antonin Delair, who leads systematic FX strategy out of London, shares valuable insights into the recent developments surrounding the dollar and emerging market currencies. The discussion highlights the Bank of England's surprising focus on inflation control and the potential repercussions for the sterling. Additionally, Delair delves into the cyclical factors influencing the dollar's performance and contrasts the growth trajectories of emerging versus developed markets, shedding light on the opportunities and challenges in the current global financial landscape.