At Any Rate Global FX: Can USD weakness continue, Russia/Ukraine Scenarios and what’s next for GBP
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Aug 15, 2025 James Nelligan, a Senior FX strategist at JPMorgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA and Latam Local Markets Strategy, dive into the future of the US dollar and the factors behind its potential decline. They discuss key geopolitical events affecting currency markets and analyze the implications of a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conversation also covers the dynamics of GBP amid UK economic challenges and the effects of Scandi central bank policies. With insights on emerging markets, it’s a deep exploration of currency strategy amidst global uncertainty.
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Dollar Bearish Conditions Still Intact
- Meera Chandan argues dollar bearish conditions remain intact given falling US real yields and moderating US growth.
- She cautions that large dollar declines need a catalyst like Fed dovish capitulation or a major Russia-Ukraine resolution.
Ceasefire Works Through Energy Prices
- Meera Chandan identifies energy prices as the main transmission channel from any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire to FX.
- She estimates a ceasefire could boost EUR/USD around 2–3% via terms-of-trade and sentiment effects.
Partial Ceasefire Is Most Probable
- Anezka Christovova frames probable outcomes as scenarios and assigns highest probability to a partial ceasefire.
- She warns full peace is unlikely and outcomes may be postponed, raising uncertainty.