At Any Rate Global Rates, FX & Economics: Scandinavian macro, FX, and rates update
Aug 15, 2025
Morten Lund, an expert on Scandinavian economics from J.P. Morgan, joins James Nelligan, an FX researcher, to delve into the macroeconomic landscape of Sweden and Norway. They discuss how ongoing trade wars could dampen growth in Sweden while forecasting a bright future for Norway's economy, fueled by strong consumer confidence. Expect insights on the monetary policies of Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank, as well as the impact of central bank strategies on currency fluctuations, particularly the NOK and SEK.
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Global Growth And Fed Tilt
- Global industry is stalling as U.S. reciprocal tariffs and trade war effects ramp up demand headwinds for goods.
- JPMorgan now expects the Fed to resume easing with four 25bp cuts starting in September, shifting global rate dynamics.
Sweden: Weak Growth, Technical Inflation Rise
- Sweden's growth surprised to the downside and is likely to remain below consensus, partly due to trade exposure and weak confidence.
- Summer inflation rise in Sweden is largely technical and should reverse, risking core inflation falling below 2% next year.
Norway: Resilient Growth And Sticky Inflation
- Norway shows solid, slightly above-potential growth supported by real wage gains and expansionary fiscal policy.
- Core inflation in Norway is likely to remain above 2.5%, keeping the outlook more hawkish than markets expect.