At Any Rate Global FX: Update on systematic FX signals and EM currencies
Aug 8, 2025
Antonin Delair, who leads systematic FX strategy out of London, shares valuable insights into the recent developments surrounding the dollar and emerging market currencies. The discussion highlights the Bank of England's surprising focus on inflation control and the potential repercussions for the sterling. Additionally, Delair delves into the cyclical factors influencing the dollar's performance and contrasts the growth trajectories of emerging versus developed markets, shedding light on the opportunities and challenges in the current global financial landscape.
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US Labor Signs Of Gradual Weakening
- Patrick Locke sees ongoing moderation with rising continuing claims despite modest employment growth.
- He interprets this as a slow bleed into higher unemployment rather than abrupt labor shedding.
BOE Shift Toward Inflation Focus
- Patrick Locke says the BOE prioritized inflation risks and raised its inflation forecast instead of pivoting dovish.
- He views this as a subtle reaction-function shift that dampens immediate sterling weakness.
Dollar Reacted To Fed Nomination News
- Patrick Locke notes the dollar rallied after headlines that Chris Waller might be in line for Fed chief.
- He also flags that temporary nominations and policy timing still temper large dollar moves.