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At Any Rate

Latest episodes

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Jul 26, 2024 • 11min

Global Commodities: Gold & Silver—Citius, Altius, Fortius

The discussion centers on the bullish outlook for gold and silver, driven by various economic factors. With the Fed's potential rate cuts and the volatile election landscape, these metals remain appealing. Physical demand from China may have cooled, but concerns about US fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks keep interest alive. Growth in gold and silver ETF holdings hints at a shift in investor sentiment, with gold outperforming despite challenges for silver, which may find recovery through industrial demand.
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Jul 26, 2024 • 22min

US Rates: Putting the “Fun” in Funding and the Quarterly Refunding

US Rates strategists Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, and Phoebe White discuss funding markets, QT impact, August refunding, and FOMC meeting. Topics include market inefficiencies, Treasury guidance on borrowing needs, US Treasury issuances, and outlook for rate cuts.
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Jul 23, 2024 • 15min

Global Rates, US Credit: Spreadbites Spreads, Politics, and the Consumer

Eric Beinstein, U.S. High Grade Credit Research, and Amy Sze, ABS Research, discuss credit market trends. Topics include global rates, US politics' impact, consumer credit performance, and future market trends.
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Jul 22, 2024 • 20min

Global FX: USD down but not out(age)

Topics discussed include investor sentiment around FX asset class, implications of US political landscape, lack of conviction among clients, dollar's view, RBNZ's dovish pivot, potential bearish trades in FX, Trump's comments on yen and yuan, President Biden's impact on FX markets, analysis of political replacement's impact on FX market, correlation between dollar shifts and yields, effects of rates and tariffs on dollar's performance, recent third plenums' influence on financial markets and market positioning updates.
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Jul 19, 2024 • 19min

Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing implications for Commodities under a Red Wave

The podcast discusses the implications of a potential Red Wave in the 2024 US election on commodities, highlighting gold as a winner. It explores factors like fiscal debt, trade policies, and bullish prospects for gold under GOP control. Topics include strategies for US oil production growth, deficit reduction, and implications for agricultural markets and base metals under different political scenarios.
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Jul 18, 2024 • 18min

EM Fixed Income: Goldilocks and the US election

Discussing the impacts of the US election on EM fixed income assets, analyzing market movements, regional impacts in Latin America and EMEA, and market reaction to the election. Exploring the application of valuation models, market uncertainties, and trading strategies amidst election ambiguity.
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Jul 17, 2024 • 14min

US Rates Strategy: Trading Principal Factor Volatility

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss options-based trades for US Rates markets, focusing on factor volatility. They cover implied principal components, factor volatility, using vanilla swaptions, and exploiting exposure to factors for successful trades.
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Jul 12, 2024 • 18min

EM Fixed Income: The data vs the US elections

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss EM markets, US elections impact, global economic trends, EMEA-EM vs Latin America market performance, relief rally, debt restructuring, bond offerings, and Sri Lanka's agreement
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Jul 12, 2024 • 21min

Global FX: On Japan intervention/ GPIF, dollar supports and European data

Global FX experts discuss Japan intervention impact on yen, CPI & payrolls on dollar, and European data implications on EUR, GBP, and Scandi FX. Analysis includes GPIF asset changes, US economic indicators, European data influence, and global currency trends.
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Jul 12, 2024 • 18min

EM Fixed Income: The data vs the US elections

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the impact of US elections on EM markets, comparing EMEA and Latin America performance, debt restructuring insights, and complex bond negotiations in Sri Lanka.

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