At Any Rate

Phoebe White, Senior U.S. Rates Strategist at J.P. Morgan, and Eric Childs, Head of NA Rates Trading, dive into crucial insights about the upcoming Treasury refunding announcement. They discuss expected changes in T-bill issuance and the fiscal implications on investor behavior. The duo analyzes market adjustments and the influence of global trends on term premiums, especially how long-end yields remain elevated. Expect a deep dive into the implications of central bank responses and anticipated funding challenges for the next few years.

Join Patrick Locke, a J.P. Morgan analyst focused on FX outlook, and James Nelligan, who specializes in UK data, as they dive into the impact of Japan's recent elections on fiscal policies and the yen. Hear their insights on U.S. monetary policy volatility and its ripple effects on the dollar. They also tackle the UK's economic challenges and the bearish outlook for the sterling amid stagflation fears. The discussion rounds out with trends in global FX reserves, signaling potential shifts in currency dynamics.

Jahangir Aziz is the Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research at J.P. Morgan, while Jonny Goulden leads their EM Fixed Income Strategy. They delve into the impact of U.S. tariffs on emerging markets, particularly comparing ASEAN nations with China. The conversation highlights the challenges in monetary policy shaped by inflation, along with the risks posed by credit spreads. They also discuss the interconnectedness of EM currencies with global trends, including the potential for recovery amid a fluctuating dollar. A must-listen for those interested in EM strategies!

Cocoa prices are experiencing a significant downturn due to decreased demand, particularly in Asia. The podcast uncovers the implications of disappointing grind data on agricultural markets and how tariffs on Brazilian imports are affecting the situation. Experts analyze price fluctuations, forecast potential supply and demand improvements, and discuss the influence of weather and inventory levels on future market dynamics. Despite the current challenges, a stabilization in cocoa prices might be on the horizon.

In this engaging discussion, the hosts delve into summer themes shaping the European rate markets. They explore historical trends in intra-EMU spreads, revealing implications for carry trades. The conversation shifts to the seasonal dynamics of swap spreads, highlighting widening trends linked to reduced issuance. Finally, they analyze European SSA exposures, especially in Germany, and dissect recent volatility in UK gilt yields due to fiscal pressures, providing insights into future yield projections.

Join Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of FX Strategy at JPMorgan, and Patrick Locke, Senior FX Strategist, as they dissect the bearish forecast for the US dollar. They delve into recent CNY fixes and tariffs, analyzing how these factors influence market expectations and the dollar's future. The conversation highlights the resilience of the Eurodollar and dynamic currency shifts across Asia, revealing how U.S. trade policy changes could impact global markets. Tune in for insights into the strategic currents shaping international finance!

Exciting developments are unfolding as the U.S. plans a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1st. This unexpected move sends ripples through the copper market, particularly after a significant surge in imports. Experts dive into what this means for copper prices and the market's future. Additionally, the podcast unpacks global oil and gas capital spending trends for 2025, highlighting shifts caused by geopolitical tensions and price fluctuations. Discover the mysteries behind increasing oil production despite a shrinking number of active rigs!

Join Sajjid Chinoy, Head of Asia Economics at J.P. Morgan, and Rajiv Batra, Head of Asia Equity Strategy, as they dissect the latest U.S. tariff announcements and their repercussions on Asian economies. They dive into declining growth projections impacted by export dynamics and discuss the central banks' responses amidst the turmoil. The conversation also covers the ripple effects on foreign exchange and market reactions, providing insights on stock selection strategies as Asia navigates a changing economic landscape.

Global upstream oil and gas spending is set to decrease for the first time since 2020, with a predictable fall across various regions except the Middle East. U.S. shale spending is experiencing a decline, compounded by rising tariffs on essential materials. Nonetheless, oil liquids production is projected to rise significantly in the coming years, buoyed by strategic hedging during price spikes. The podcast delves into the shifting dynamics in global oil production and investment, highlighting the dramatic drops in drilling activity and the focus on efficiency improvements.

Ben Jarman, a strategist at JPMorgan based in Sydney, sheds light on Australia's pension system and its influence on FX hedge ratios. Patrick Locke, also a JPMorgan strategist, dives into Canadian pension funds and their FX hedging strategies. The discussion highlights how Australia's low FX hedge ratios affect currency flows, while Canada's approach adapts to market shifts. They also touch on European hedge ratios and the impact of UK fiscal news on sterling and US payrolls, revealing insights into international investment dynamics.