At Any Rate

Virginia Martin Heriz, Global Head of ESG Methodology and Integration at JPMorgan Research, and Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy and Integration, share insights on the booming EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class, now worth $1.4 trillion. They discuss the surge in green bonds, corporate issuances, and 'Greenium' in this sector. The duo dives into the importance of water security and biodiversity in sustainable debt, as well as innovative financial mechanisms like debt for nature swaps that are paving the way for a greener future.

Francis Diamond and Phoebe White delve into the fascinating world of inflation markets. They discuss the conflicting trends in DM inflation breakevens, with European rates rising due to Germany's fiscal shifts. Meanwhile, US breakevens appear to be undervalued, presenting unique opportunities. The duo also analyzes the UK’s inflation, driven by surging energy prices, and its implications on central bank policies. A captivating exploration of global economic dynamics awaits!

Patrick Locke, an FX strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan, and James Nelligan, an expert on European FX markets, delve into the upcoming tariff announcements and their implications for currency markets. They explore how dollar trends and geopolitical tensions influence investor concerns. The discussion highlights the intricate relationship between tariffs and central bank decisions, particularly in Europe, along with a look at the impact on specific companies like Stocky and Nokia amidst inflation uncertainties. Their insights offer a nuanced view of the FX landscape.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui delve into the complexities of monetary policy in emerging markets. They discuss the impact of political events and interest rate shifts in countries like Brazil and Turkey. The looming threat of a silent debt crisis due to rising interest rates is highlighted, along with vulnerabilities faced by emerging markets like Turkey and Argentina. The episode advocates for defensive investment strategies while identifying selective opportunities amidst market volatility.

Oil prices have been stuck below their fair value since last September, largely due to the actions of 'oil vigilantes'—a term that describes how OPEC may step in to stabilize the market. Despite Brent prices nearing historic lows, OPEC is set to increase production. The podcast dives into the complexities of oil dynamics amid geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions affecting key exporters. It also examines the delicate balance of global demand, as growth in Europe and China offsets concerns from downgrades in US GDP.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.   Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivative Strategy       Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivative Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4930738-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan take stock of the bearish-USD view, look at new ways of framing the USD response to tariffs, discuss how European FX is responding to recent geopolitical and fiscal news, and finally preview upcoming central bank meetings next week.   Speakers Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4934024-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the seismic shift in German fiscal policy and the repricing in European rates markets against a backdrop of ongoing tariff uncertainty.   Speakers Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist   This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4935267-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui,  Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4931834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.