At Any Rate Global FX: Keeping the bearish USD view
Jul 11, 2025
Join Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of FX Strategy at JPMorgan, and Patrick Locke, Senior FX Strategist, as they dissect the bearish forecast for the US dollar. They delve into recent CNY fixes and tariffs, analyzing how these factors influence market expectations and the dollar's future. The conversation highlights the resilience of the Eurodollar and dynamic currency shifts across Asia, revealing how U.S. trade policy changes could impact global markets. Tune in for insights into the strategic currents shaping international finance!
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Dollar Bearish View Holds
- The dollar view remains bearish despite recent sizable gains and potential consolidation.
- Structural US policy shifts and global monetary conditions support a medium-term weaker dollar outlook.
Dollar CNY Fixing Signals Weakness
- Dollar CNY fixing has trended lower for three months signaling expected dollar weakness versus CNH.
- CNY spot may decouple temporarily from fixings due to technical flows and seasonal outflows.
EM FX Risk Appetite Nuances
- The EM FX risk appetite index reaching overbought territory usually signals tactical retreat from EM currencies.
- Asia’s trade and current account flows make it less sensitive to risk appetite shifts unlike capital flow-driven markets.