At Any Rate Oil Prices and Asia - Macro and Market Implications?
Jun 26, 2025
In this conversation, Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, dives deep into the surprising resilience of oil prices amid Middle Eastern conflicts. She discusses geopolitical dynamics shaping these trends, particularly focusing on critical regions like the Strait of Hormuz. Natasha also forecasts supply-demand shifts post-ceasefire and examines the alarming state of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Lastly, she highlights how changing oil prices are affecting Asian economies, including currency dynamics and bond market resilience.
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Middle East Oil Stability Insight
- Geopolitical risks in Middle East oil markets are minimal due to Gulf countries' strong incentives for peace.
- Regional stability is vital for ambitious non-oil economic visions like Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and UAE's Vision 2031.
Oil Price Forecast and Supply Dynamics
- Oil market fundamentals show a surplus, leading to a forecast of oil prices declining to mid-60s in 2025 and around $60 in 2026.
- U.S. producers hedging at higher prices suggest supply growth, further pressuring prices downward in 2026.
U.S. SPR Role Changing
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is near 40-year lows due to shift from net importer to exporter.
- Replenishing SPR to full capacity is unlikely; moderate refill may occur but is not critical for price floors.