At Any Rate Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer
Aug 29, 2025
Khagendra Gupta, an Analyst at J.P. Morgan Global Research, shares insights on the Euro area and UK rate markets as they shake off summer slowdowns. He discusses the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and its implications for interest rates and inflation. The conversation dives into trends like the unusual swap spreads and shifting pricing strategies, while exploring appealing carry and volatility tactics. Gupta also highlights the rise in UK gilt yields and the fiscal challenges impacting future market dynamics.
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ECB Unlikely To Cut In September
- Khagendra Gupta sees September as unlikely for an ECB cut but expects the bank to keep easing
Price In An October Easing Possibility
- Price some probability of an October ease into the front end because Khagendra thinks October is a good place to deliver cuts.
Swap Spreads Diverged From Typical Seasonality
- Swap spreads have not narrowed as much as seasonality would predict because bunds stayed unusually stable.