UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, as he dives into the recent surge in U.S. equities and whether investors are ahead of the curve amidst ongoing macro uncertainty. He explores the implications of U.S. exceptionalism for economic growth, emphasizing the role of productivity in maintaining it. The discussion also covers how recent trade developments and the Federal Reserve's actions are shaping market sentiments, alongside strategic insights for navigating current volatility, especially in tech and equities.

Recent US consumer sentiment is notably up, particularly among registered Republicans, but the underlying economic realities remain uncertain. Consumers are still relying on older inventory before trade taxes take effect. There's a striking disconnect between sentiment and actual economic conditions, fueled by partisan media biases. Businesses are responding quickly to this uncertainty, leading to a significant drop in US port activity as they hesitate to make moves amidst fluctuating consumer behaviors.

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 04.17.25

Tension rises as China dismisses trade talks with the US, while President Trump hints at mysterious negotiations. Economic uncertainty looms large, affecting consumer sentiment and inflation trends in Japan. Meanwhile, US and South Korea rekindle trade discussions after a tariff reprieve for North Korea. In contrast, the UK surprises everyone with robust retail sales, defying gloomy forecasts among retailers. Is optimism misplaced, or is the economy showing resilience? Tune in for insights on these pivotal issues.

The conversation dives into the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, highlighting a surge in mentions of 'uncertainty' amidst fluctuating trade policies. It addresses the potential economic effects of tariffs on consumer goods from China, hinting at rising prices. The hosts also dissect recent central bank speeches, suggesting possible interest rate cuts as growth risks loom. Concerns about upcoming economic data from Germany and the US reveal hesitance among investors, showcasing how erratic policies are shaping market dynamics.

How much longer will uncertainty last, and where might it all settle? Burkhard weighs in as investors continue to navigate everything from policy pivots to Fed independence to inflation, and much more. Plus, thoughts on how investors should react to a market recovery (or a deeper downturn). We also check in on the status of the global rotation trade, and gold.

Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, both Senior Fixed Income Strategists at UBS, dive into the current dynamics of the fixed income market. They discuss the performance of preferred securities, highlighting both challenges and resilient sectors amid market volatility. Sileo zeroes in on opportunities in the preferred market, while McAlinden provides insights on investment-grade corporates. Together, they explore strategic investing, emphasizing the importance of a diversified approach amidst changing interest rates and economic uncertainties.

Investor concerns are on the rise as the US President showcases retreat tactics regarding the Federal Reserve. His statement about not planning to fire Fed Chair Powell raises questions on its independence. Additionally, optimism blooms from promises of amicable trade negotiations with China, hinting at potential relief for US consumers. This shifting landscape underscores the delicate balance between market confidence and economic uncertainties.

Despite near-term headwinds and elevated volatility, the market dislocation brings opportunities for muni investors. Sudip and Jeannine provide a muni market performance update and share portfolio considerations for muni investors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy