UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Kurt rejoins the conversation to outline the notable takeaways and investment implications of One Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th. We also cover upcoming legislative priorities of Congress, along with an update on trade negotiations, and what to know what upcoming trade-related deadlines. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump's delay on new consumer taxes shifts potential inflation spikes to January. This postponement impacts not only consumers but investors as well. The discussion includes how trade dynamics with BRICS countries could shift in response. Additionally, the importance of upcoming retail sales data in Europe is highlighted, suggesting that all eyes are on the international market reactions.

The discussion highlights America's leading role in AI, focusing on semiconductor chips and language models. Global investment opportunities in AI are explored, revealing potential in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. A deep dive into AI's three layers explains infrastructure, data intelligence, and software applications. The Middle East stands out with its youthful population and robust government support, enabling rapid advancements. The conversation also emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments in emerging markets to capitalize on global AI growth.

The US June employment report was strong enough in the headline to dispel ideas of a sudden US interest rate cut. It was troubling enough in the detail to suggest a more negative outlook for the US economy. Job creation was very narrowly focused.

While optimism over easing tariff risks has buoyed markets so far, the US administration’s tough trade stance and the Israel-Iran conflict continue to fuel volatility and uncertainty. How can investors balance opportunity and risk amid these shifting dynamics? Plus, will the US dollar fall further, and what are the key strategies for diversifying beyond the USD?

Tomorrow’s US holiday means US labor market data appears today. There is a hint today’s report may be weak. US presidents normally see the data the night before release. Last night, US President Trump issued a social media post calling for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to resign. Policy uncertainty and the largest tax increase in modern times are more likely to damage the labor market than Fed policy, but the post might signal weaker data.

Jay Dobson is joined by Rob Thummel for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy evolution story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years ahead. Plus, thoughts on geopolitical risks to be mindful of when it comes to energy investing. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rob Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager, at Tortoise Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate has passed a bill that solidifies an unsustainable fiscal position, heading to the House amidst fiscal conservative pushback. This could lead to significant shifts in economic impacts, particularly in how wealth is redistributed. The discussion spans broader trade tensions, including potential import taxes and the implications for UK trade post-Brexit. Additionally, evolving trade dynamics between the UK and EU are explored, highlighting inconsistencies in US labor market data and the vigilance of investors on euro area unemployment.

Michael Lippert is a Vice President, Portfolio Manager, and serves as the Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, including an assessment of the energy requirements to sustain global demand, a look at the global competitive landscape, along with anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US administration seems to be retreating from the idea of “90 trade deals in 90 days”. With less than a week to go, they have a half-hearted agreement with the UK and a de-escalation with China, and little else. The idea is that interim agreements will be sought, retaining the 10% tax on US consumers of foreign products. Uncertainty about future product-specific taxes appears to be making it more difficult to do deals.