UBS On-Air: Market Moves Signal over Noise with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Nov 2, 2025
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi dives into the unseen forces shaping market movements ahead of the trading week. She analyzes surprising growth in S&P third-quarter earnings and explores the vitality of high-end consumers and AI-driven investments. Delving into the ramifications of the ongoing government shutdown, she reflects on its potential risks, particularly regarding the U.S. labor market and missing job reports. The discussion also highlights the intricate relationship between AI monetization and stock performance, alongside a preference for equities over bonds.
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Two Engines Powering U.S. Growth
- U.S. earnings show underlying growth engines beyond headline numbers: the high-end consumer and AI-driven CapEx.
- These two forces support growth and point to slower goods inflation ahead.
Consumer Spending Is Deeply Bifurcated
- The U.S. consumer is resilient, but spending is bifurcated between top-end and middle-to segments.
- Top 20% account for about two-thirds of consumption while the middle seeks value and is price-sensitive.
Hyperscalers' CapEx Fuels AI Infrastructure
- Hyperscalers keep raising CapEx, underpinning demand for AI infrastructure and related goods.
- That CapEx supports companies enabling AI and suggests durable tech investment trends.