UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, and Jason Draho, UBS CIO's Head of Asset Allocation Americas, as they delve into the complexities of U.S. trade policy and its economic implications. They tackle the Federal Reserve's evolving role and its impact on monetary policy. They also analyze the dichotomy of tariffs and inflation, discuss the vibrant yet concentrated equity markets influenced by AI advancements, and explore the lessons from historical market trends. This engaging conversation balances economic insights with investment strategies.

Explore the contentious terrain of potential US interest rate cuts and the political implications behind them. Delve into how consumer sentiment is shaped by political divides, influencing economic perspectives. Discover the nuances of inflation statistics and their surprising effects on voter behavior, particularly during election seasons. Plus, gain insights into Europe's stable core inflation rates and the economic challenges posed by ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee is a celebrated expert in artificial intelligence, currently serving as the CEO of 01.AI and Chairman of Sinovation Ventures. In this discussion, he reveals the revolutionary impact of generative AI and the critical need for companies to adapt. He shares insights from his journey with ZeraDot AI and contrasts the innovation dynamics between the US and China. Listeners gain practical tips on harnessing AI for productivity and learn the power of asking the right questions to navigate future AI developments.

Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas at UBS, shares expert insights on navigating the fixed income landscape for 2H25. She discusses the outlook for interest rates and the shifting dynamics between investment grade and high yield bonds, where high yield has recently outperformed. Leslie also highlights the risks posed by rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the importance of economic data over political speculation. Tune in for strategic positioning tips in a complex market!

Tensions rise as the U.S. President aims to reshape the media narrative, spotlighting concerns over the autonomy of the Federal Reserve. The discussion delves into how social media affects public sentiment and investor confidence in central banking. Additionally, trade taxes are examined for their role in inflation and consumer spending, highlighting how tariffs challenge America's competitiveness in global markets. It's a deep dive into political maneuvering and economic repercussions that could shake the financial landscape.

Shane Lieberman, a Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS, joins to discuss hot topics dominating Capitol Hill. He sheds light on 'Crypto Week' and the legislative momentum surrounding cryptocurrency regulations, like the Genius Act for stablecoins. The conversation also navigates U.S. trade policy with the EU and Mexico amidst tariff threats. Additionally, Shane offers insights into the evolving geopolitical landscape due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting a shift towards confrontational strategies.

US June consumer price inflation raises alarms about data quality, hinting that budget cuts may lead to price guessing. With trade taxes impacting consumers, appliance prices see their fastest rise this century. The discussion also contrasts the inflation landscape in the UK, revealing the policy-making challenges driven by changing consumer attitudes. It's a deep dive into inflation dynamics and their economic ramifications.

Sadiq Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas at UBS and lead author of the Municipal Market Guide, shares insights on the municipal bond market's mid-year performance and its bright prospects for the second half of the year. He highlights the advantages of shorter duration and higher coupon bonds over struggling longer ones. The discussion also dives into the impacts of Medicaid cuts on rural healthcare and offers a positive outlook, recommending revenue bonds and exploring promising sectors for investment.

The podcast delves into the latest US consumer price inflation data and its connection to recent trade tax impacts. It highlights how only a portion of expected tax effects have been felt in the economy so far. Inventory stockpiling adds another layer, as pre-tax items are still circulating. The discussion shifts to how US firms manage to pass on these price increases, especially in a post-pandemic landscape. Additionally, it addresses the influence of tariffs in media narratives surrounding inflation.

In this engaging discussion, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, shares his insights on the resurgence of tariffs and their implications for the market. He explores the tension between the Fed and political pressures surrounding interest rates. Jason also offers an optimistic view on the upcoming earnings season, highlighting resilience in sectors like tech amid tariff impacts. He delves into the potential for a 'Roaring 20s'-style economic revival, driven by investment and AI, while navigating the challenges of current policy uncertainty.