We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday brings the regular reminder that average earnings are not wages (changing labor force structures change the average). The payrolls number is derived from a survey that has a 43% response rate, and that poor representation means significant revisions are much more likely. The market is looking for a fairly dull report overall—some moderation in job creation with a stable unemployment rate.

Ainsley Carbone, a Retirement Strategist at UBS, and Justin Waring, a Senior Total Wealth Strategist at UBS, tackle essential insights for retirement planning in 2025. They discuss key updates on Medicare premiums and Social Security adjustments, alongside new contribution limits for retirement accounts. Ainsley and Justin highlight the importance of liquidity management and tax-efficient withdrawals to prepare for escalating healthcare costs. They also navigate changes in estate tax policies, underscoring the need for strategic planning as retirement landscapes evolve.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect the rather chaotic swings of view that occur under Fed Chair Powell. After an emergency rate cut without an emergency in September, the Fed has moved to slowing the pace of rate cuts being “appropriate” in December. The basic idea is unchanged— follow inflation down. Concerns were raised about US President-elect Trump’s trade tax and deportation policies in discussions about inflation, but they were not the central focus of the inflation debate.

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. Investors’ concerns are less about the current state of play of the US economy (reasonable growth and slowing inflation) and more about where politics will take the economy next. This has added uncertainty about the 2025 policy path, and gives the minutes more importance than is perhaps normal at this stage of the cycle.

We kick-off 2025 by previewing President-elect Trump’s first 100 days in office, along with the legislative focuses and priorities of Congress in the months ahead. Plus, reflections on the life and legacy of late President Jimmy Carter. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The resignation of Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Bar highlights the guardrails in protecting central bank independence. While Barr’s resignation from the supervision role might be politically inspired, Barr has not resigned as Fed governor. All seven gubernatorial positions are filled, and a vice-chair of the board of governors needs to be a member of the board of governors. The next term to end is Governor Kugler’s in 2026.

Our first episode of the year kicks off with an assessment of market activity over the past few weeks, and what to expect from markets over the near-term. We also spend time outlining expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, and with President-elect Trump’s inauguration only two weeks away, consider whether economic policies in Trump 2.0 will be more MAGA or DOGE. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Will a cooling labor market reassure the Fed? Will stocks recover from the December dip? Can gold push closer to all-time highs? CIO's Christopher Swann brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

US President-elect Trump has been posting on social media in support of a single budget bill through Congress. A single bill might take longer to pass, delaying policy implementation. Trump advocated taxing US consumers of foreign goods to pay for an abolition of taxes on tips. (Tipping has been a hidden inflation force in the US, raising the cost of services without being recorded in inflation data).