UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join retirement experts Justin Waring and Ainsley Carbone as they unveil key changes in retirement savings set for 2026 under the SECURE 2.0 Act. Justin explains how high earners will need to make Roth catch-up contributions, ensuring taxes are paid upfront. Ainsley contrasts the benefits of Roth versus pre-tax options, emphasizing the importance of tax diversification. They also discuss strategic planning techniques, including timing distributions and making intentional catch-up choices, to navigate this new landscape effectively.

In this engaging discussion, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, dives into the geopolitical and policy currents shaping markets in early 2026. He tackles President Trump’s Greenland ambitions, assessing the market risks of potential tariffs. Jason also previews crucial announcements from Davos focused on housing and energy. Additionally, he examines the speculation around Fed chair candidates and discusses the implications of Japan's snap election on global rates. His insights provide a nuanced outlook for investors amid these dynamic challenges.

Fueled by recent tariff threats from the US administration, the Treasury bond market is seeing some shaky reactions. The potential for increased US inflation could undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Meanwhile, Trump's dramatic proposal to tax French wine buyers adds a quirky twist to the diplomatic landscape. On a different note, rising household incomes and firm employment in the UK suggest a resilient labor market, even as the Bank of England faces pressure to ease rates due to inflation normalization.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 19 January 2026.

Events around Greenland have four main areas of market focus. Threatened US tariffs appear more serious than those relating to Iran, and may be overturned by the US Supreme Court. However, they imply US consumer prices of goods from the EU and UK will increase 4% to 10% (within about six months). This may reinforce the narrative of the US affordability crisis.

Steve Chiavarone, Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Equities at Federated Hermes, shares insights from his 20 years of investment experience. He discusses the strong U.S. economy, highlighting recent GDP figures and steady unemployment. Chiavarone provides an optimistic look at Q4 earnings, particularly JP Morgan's results, and argues that current equity valuations make sense due to rising profit margins. He also explores the impact of AI on various sectors and outlines a cautious forecast for Fed rate cuts by 2026, while warning of potential market risks.

The US has long been the birthplace and powerhouse of private equity, accounting for over half of global fundraising and setting the pace for the industry worldwide. But Europe’s private equity market is developing fast, even as global economic headwinds persist. What’s driving the shift of economic activity away from public markets, and where are the most promising opportunities for investors on the continent today? In this episode of “Across the Pond,” special guest Viral Patel, CEO of Blackstone Private Equity Strategies, joins hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters, along with Antoinette Zuidweg, CIO alternatives investment strategist, to discuss the evolution of private equity in Europe, the future of the 60-40 portfolio, and how investors can navigate the changing landscape on both sides of the Atlantic.

Taiwan's new 15% tariff agreement with the US could signal bigger changes ahead, especially if the Supreme Court acts on tariffs. There’s skepticism about Taiwan's investment pledges, suggesting they may just be rebranded old plans. Meanwhile, rising US industrial production is straining electricity demand and prices. In a twist, Trump proposes an auction for tech firms to support new power plants, but supply constraints might hinder development. Despite tariffs, US manufacturing struggles to regain footing, with gains mainly in chips and electronics.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning how Washington is addressing housing affordability, geopolitical points of interest such as Iran and Venezuela, the upcoming SCOTUS ruling on the Trump administration’s use of IEEPA for tariff policy, the U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into Fed Chair Powell, and where negotiations stand to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government comes the end of January. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK monthly GDP data was stronger than expected, and revised stronger for the previous month—but the monthly GDP data is economists’ version of white noise (a background hum to help one sleep). Manufacturing and services data was stronger and generally revised up. Trade data showed a lot more volatility in previous metal trade, and stronger exports (away from the US). European trade data should also show normal non-US trade.