UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan's recent disinflation trend shows a slowdown in core inflation to 1.8% year-on-year, driven by shifts in non-fresh food prices. The discussion highlights broader disinflationary patterns in Europe compared to inflationary pressures in the US due to consumer spending and trade policy changes. It delves into how consumer habits, influenced by political views, intersect with the potential for rising inflation from trade taxes. The skepticism around trade agreements also underlines its impact on economic policies in the US.

Burkhard Varnholt, a prominent voice in global markets, shares his insights on recent geopolitical shifts affecting market trends, particularly the influence of the Israel-Iran conflict and the resilience of Asian markets. He also discusses market valuations and the notable impact on oil prices. In a personal twist, Burkhard recounts his exhilarating cycling adventure through the Swiss Alps, drawing parallels between navigating mountain challenges and the innovative spirit driving economic growth in Switzerland.

Discussions revolve around President Trump's potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair and its implications for economic policy. The independence of the Fed could be challenged if a political appointee takes charge. Upcoming GDP data will be crucial for gauging the US economy's resilience. The impact of new trade taxes on consumer prices and inventory levels is also analyzed, raising concerns about market stability and stockpiling by businesses.

Dan rejoins the conversation with Jason in studio to exchange thoughts on how to approach asset allocation in today’s market and macro environment. We also spend time weighing potential directions for US trade policy, along with the Fed, geopolitical considerations, and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer for PIMCO. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent speech highlights a cautious approach to interest rates, emphasizing the impact of trade taxes and future inflation. The podcast dives into how geopolitical tensions, including the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, are affecting market dynamics. There’s also an intriguing discussion on how regional stability and global financial trends interact with local politics, touching on the rising polarization seen worldwide.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the convergence of public and private credit, along with the risks and opportunities within private credit to be mindful of. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research within the Portfolio Management Group, BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The podcast dives into the precarious ceasefire between Iran and Israel, analyzing its surprising impact on oil prices. Geopolitical tensions are overshadowed by investor confidence despite rising inflation and expected shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Additionally, it critiques the recent Congressional hearing featuring Fed Chair Powell, pointing out the lack of probing questions and the central bank's relevance in current market discussions. The interplay of global events and monetary strategies offers a fascinating landscape for investors.

With the summer season now officially underway, it is already shaping up to be an eventful one for investors. In addition to this past weekend’s geopolitical developments in the Middle East, policy developments on tariffs and taxes, the potential impact of tariffs on the economy, and corporate earnings will keep investors preoccupied. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy