UBS On-Air: Market Moves

There is yet more uncertainty in the US economy. US President Trump appealed the ruling that their trade taxes were illegal. While this is decided, the taxes stay. There are thus three layers of uncertainty. Will the taxes survive? If they are illegal, will US companies and consumers get refunds? And are trade taxes today actually being collected? There is also uncertainty around how US companies will react to this uncertainty, especially with pricing.

There has been no letup in the trade drama, with a US federal court striking down much of President Trump’s recent tariff hikes. That followed a sudden pivot in trade talks with the European Union - with the threat of a 50% tariff to an acceleration of negotiations all within the space of a few days. So what have we learnt about Trump’s strategy? What does this all mean for the EU and Switzerland? And where do we see the safest investment opportunities across the pond? Hear perspective from Dean Turner, CIO Eurozone and UK Economist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

A timely review of overnight trade developments, plus a look at positioning recommendations within EM equities, and thoughts on the dollar. We also touch on how investors can position using EM and international equities in the context of portfolio diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US trade court ruled that about half of US President Trump’s trade tax increases are illegal. Markets reacted positively, but the US has not been reset to its factory settings.

Equity markets seemingly rallied on optimistic comments from US President Trump around trade. So much focus on the words of one individual is unusual. Trump has the power to limit future economic damage from new trade taxes, but cannot undo the damage of past policy swings. For example, comments in yesterday’s sentiment data highlighted that companies are delaying decisions in the face of policy uncertainty, even as Trump retreated from some tariffs.

Until recently, gold’s rally seemed unstoppable. In an environment where perceived safe havens were scarce, gold stood out. However, in recent weeks, investor sentiment has shifted as geopolitical tensions eased. Does this mean gold’s rally has come to an end? Not necessarily, according to our commodities experts, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Advisory & Content, and Giovanni Staunovo, CIO Commodity Strategist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.

The podcast dives into the recent delay of a proposed 50% tariff on European goods and its impact on market reactions. It explores why investors often respond to initial announcements despite frequent tariff reversals. The discussion reveals a disconnect between tax policies and consumer perceptions, particularly how media narratives can mislead public understanding of price increases, like those seen in coffee. These insights shed light on the complexities of trade policy and its influence on market dynamics.

Tensions rise as President Trump's tax threats on EU products add to market uncertainty. Recently released data reveals a stronger German economy than initially believed, shifting investor sentiment. The podcast also highlights the robust resilience of the retail sector, overcoming weather disruptions and holiday timing challenges. Additionally, a pivotal Supreme Court ruling supports the independence of the US Federal Reserve, underscoring its vital role in ensuring global economic stability.

The podcast dives into the intricacies of the U.S. budget bill, exploring its potential impact on the nation’s fiscal health and credit rating. Concerns arise over rising debt as the bill shifts rapidly. Insights on tax cuts, inflation, and central bank dynamics are discussed, revealing the complex relationships between policy and market reactions. Additionally, listeners receive daily market insights and trends, empowering investors to navigate the evolving economic landscape.