UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump implemented an extraordinary tax increase on US consumers overnight. If the 104% tax increase on goods from China is not reversed, it is likely to push the US into recession more rapidly. China’s economy is negatively impacted—but the larger each round of tariffs, the less their marginal impact on foreign growth. USD 55 million of tea imported from China is subject to the 104% tax (in 1773 the UK cut tea taxes).

A roundtable discussion around the kind of that role can private assets play in a longer-term investment plan, including a performance update and outlook for private equity, private credit, real estate, and hedge funds. Featured are Jennifer Liu, Private Markets Strategist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Jon Woloshin, Real Estate & Lodging Analyst Americas, and Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets swung wildly yesterday on apparently false reports of a 90-day halt to US trade taxes (except for China). The volatility highlights two problems. Erratic policymaking means stories of dramatic shifts in policy are credible. The move toward Schlesinger’s “imperial presidency” model means policy shifts depend on the whims of one person. These make fake news plausible, creating market volatility.

This chat features Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office. He dives into the recent tariff announcements and their ripple effects on market volatility and economic forecasts. Jason discusses the potential risks of recession and the importance of navigating portfolio strategies during these uncertain times. He also highlights investment opportunities in the tech sector, particularly AI, while emphasizing the role of financial advisors in crafting personalized strategies for clients.

Following last week’s tariff announcements from the White House, we discuss the overall impact of these developments to economies across Asia, along with the impact to Asian markets. Plus, a look at how Asian economies are preparing to weather the tariff shocks, along with positioning recommendations across the region. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Asian equity markets crashed, with Hong Kong markets down over 10%. Over the weekend, US administration officials gave contradictory statements on trade taxes, causing investors to question the existence of a masterplan. Attempts to justify attacks on the Heard Island penguins only emphasized the peculiarity of the tariff formula. US President Trump took time from their golf weekend to twice post that equity declines were “on purpose”.

The podcast dives into the March jobs report, revealing surprising growth in non-farm payrolls alongside a slight rise in unemployment. Insights into the US labor market suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook despite slower wage growth. Listeners learn about the impacts of new tariffs on the economy, including a dip in manufacturing and a surge in vehicle sales as consumers rush before changes take effect. The discussion also touches on critical upcoming economic indicators and the political backdrop shaping these trends.

Financial markets reacted strongly to recent U.S. tax increases, revealing greater impact than expected. The discussion highlights the implications of a weak U.S. dollar, underscoring the phrase 'when the U.S. sneezes, the world catches cold.' However, this time, it's more like the U.S. has cut off its own arm. The potential risks of recession are explored, along with the complexities of tariff policies and their international ramifications. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell's insights into the economic outlook.

Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS, shares insights on the recent tariff announcements from the White House and their ripple effects on global trading relationships. He discusses how countries like Colombia and Israel are responding to the shifts, alongside Argentina and India advocating for more dialogue. Additionally, Shane analyzes the recent special elections in Florida and Wisconsin, shedding light on voter sentiment and what the results could mean for the upcoming midterms.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, shares his expertise on the recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration. He discusses the nuanced impacts of increased tariffs on China and how they may affect the global economy. Reiman emphasizes the importance of adaptive strategies for managing portfolios during these turbulent times and the implications of market volatility. His insights on high-quality bonds and navigating economic uncertainty provide invaluable guidance for investors looking to thrive amidst change.