UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Jeremy Zirin, a Senior Portfolio Manager at UBS Asset Management, provides valuable insights on the performance and outlook for US equities. He discusses the recent rebound of the equity markets driven by strong economic data, despite consumer sentiment fluctuations. The conversation dives into the resilient consumer spending and the bullish view on artificial intelligence’s impact on the economy. Zirin also emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment strategies, particularly within the financial sector, amidst current economic uncertainties.

The U.S. has implemented trade taxes on gold bullion imports, affecting American investors. This ruling complicates the hedging strategies of those buying gold to counter inflation. The discussion dives into how tariffs are enforced and the liabilities of gold importers, emphasizing the legal implications for citizens holding gold bars. The conversation also touches on market dynamics and insights from central banking, providing a layered understanding of these recent regulatory changes.

Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist at UBS, discusses the intriguing landscape of preferred securities. He highlights the underperformance of this market and suggests it's an opportunistic moment for investors. The talk delves into subsector diversification, comparing $25 and $1,000 par preferred stocks and their varying risks and rewards. Additionally, Frank explores the evolving dynamics of preferred securities, revealing new opportunities as the market shifts away from traditional bank issuers, all while offering insights from UBS's latest investment resources.

US manufacturers grapple with new import tax policies, including a controversial 100% tax on microchips. The tax creates a confusing landscape as it exempts certain major exporters, adding layers of bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Germany's trade performance and potential interest rate cuts from the Bank of England due to inflation are examined. The discussion also tackles U.S. productivity metrics and labor costs while dispelling myths surrounding AI's impact on jobs.

Burkhard Varnholt, a seasoned veteran in finance and market analysis, dives deep into pressing issues like ongoing tariff negotiations and the latest US payroll data. He shares insights on the challenges facing the healthcare sector, particularly in light of rising tariffs. Varnholt also discusses leadership shifts at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve, reinforcing how these changes impact the labor market. To lighten the mood, he recounts highlights from his recent cycling adventure through picturesque Denmark.

Paul Hsiao, an Asset Allocation Strategist for the Americas at UBS, discusses critical themes for business owners in late 2025. He explores the impact of a shifting macroeconomic landscape, including policy convergence, new tariffs, and inflation. The conversation highlights navigating economic resilience despite high interest rates, the evolving dealmaking environment with a focus on AI-driven acquisitions, and the implications for future investments. Paul's insights are invaluable for anyone looking to make informed decisions in a complex economic climate.

The podcast dives into the shortlist for the next US Federal Reserve governor, questioning the candidates' political independence. It highlights how trade taxes affect US importers and discusses the significance of European retail data in global trade. The focus then shifts to Europe, where domestic demand emerges as a key driver of economic growth amid declining German factory orders and Japan's wage increases. These trends offer insights into consumer spending and hint at possible central bank actions.

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS, dives into the evolving landscape between developed and emerging markets. He challenges traditional categorizations based on GDP and industrialization, suggesting that the lines are increasingly blurred. Alejo highlights the need for investors to adapt their strategies, considering the potential in countries like China and India. He also emphasizes the importance of diversification to navigate capital market dynamics and volatility. Tune in for valuable insights that could reshape your investment approach.

Explore the latest in the US trade balance, focusing on how the June figures reveal the interplay between goods and services. The discussion highlights how trade taxes have distorted export patterns and the impact on bilateral relationships, especially with the EU. There's an intriguing look at how the anticipated tariffs are unlikely to position the US as an export powerhouse. Additionally, investment strategies are evolving as efficiency takes precedence in response to changing market dynamics.

Dominic Schnider, Head of CIO Global FX & Commodity at UBS, and Constantin Bolz, CIO FX Strategist, dive into the recent sharp decline of the US dollar. They discuss its impact on global investors' strategies and the implications for portfolio diversification. The duo highlights factors such as tariffs and fiscal deficits affecting currency values. They emphasize the rise of alternative currencies like the euro and the potential investments in European markets. It's a timely conversation urging investors to reconsider their currency exposures.