UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Themes for 2H25
Aug 6, 2025
Paul Hsiao, an Asset Allocation Strategist for the Americas at UBS, discusses critical themes for business owners in late 2025. He explores the impact of a shifting macroeconomic landscape, including policy convergence, new tariffs, and inflation. The conversation highlights navigating economic resilience despite high interest rates, the evolving dealmaking environment with a focus on AI-driven acquisitions, and the implications for future investments. Paul's insights are invaluable for anyone looking to make informed decisions in a complex economic climate.
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Policy Convergence in 2H25
- The key theme for business owners in 2H25 is policy convergence combining tariffs and stimulative fiscal measures.
- Inflation may rise to about 3%, challenging businesses and policymakers despite recent disinflation trends.
U.S. Economy Remains Resilient
- U.S. economic growth in early 2025 remains resilient despite policy uncertainties and tariffs.
- Labor markets are strong with low unemployment and limited layoffs, reducing recession risk for now.
Prepare for Lower But Elevated Rates
- Business owners should prepare for lower interest rates but expect them to remain elevated in the medium term.
- Watch for planned Fed rate cuts starting September, but tariffs and inflation could keep rates higher than anticipated.