UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Where luck meets skill
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Dec 2, 2025 Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Market Strategist at UBS, shares his insights on navigating emerging markets. He discusses how luck and skill intertwine in this dynamic sector, emphasizing the impact of external conditions and effective policies. Rojas predicts resilient GDP growth, manageable inflation in emerging markets, and highlights favored equities such as those in China and India. He also recommends focusing on strong sovereigns in fixed income and high-yield currencies like the real and peso for optimal earnings.
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Favorable Macro Constellation
- Emerging markets enter 2026 with a favorable macro mix of AI-driven growth, easing policy, and supportive commodities.
- Alberto Rojas calls this constellation 'luck' that complements better domestic policy frameworks.
Improved Policy Credibility
- Emerging-market authorities have improved policy credibility through central bank independence and fiscal discipline.
- Alberto Rojas argues this 'skill' complements external tailwinds to support resilient growth and contained inflation.
Prefer Select EM Equity Allocations
- CIO rates emerging market equities as attractive given earnings acceleration and valuation discounts to global peers.
- Consider allocations to China Tech, China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia as preferred equity exposures.