UBS On-Air: Market Moves Talking Markets Podcast with Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes
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Nov 30, 2025 Phil Orlando, Chief Market Strategist at Federated Hermes with extensive investment expertise, shares insights on election outcomes and their influence on the 2026 midterms. He analyzes how recent Democratic wins might shift the political landscape and discusses the government's urgent actions with an eye on upcoming campaigns. Orlando also elaborates on trade policy, predicting legal support for presidential authority and its positive effects on the trade deficit. Finally, he offers a bullish outlook for the S&P and advises patience in market positioning.
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Off-Year Sweep Signals Midterm Risk
- Democrats swept key off-year races, signaling voter opposition tied to President Trump rather than individual candidates.
- That outcome suggests Republicans risk losing the House in 2026 given historical midterm seat swings.
Math Makes GOP Majority Vulnerable
- Historically the party out of power regains about 25 House seats in midterms, making current five-seat GOP majority fragile.
- Simple math implies Republicans are unlikely to retain legislative control next year absent an unusual outcome.
Watch The 16-Month Policy Window
- Expect the Trump administration to act aggressively during its limited legislative window from Inauguration to Memorial Day.
- Investors should watch policy moves in that 16-month window as potential market-moving events.