UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Analyzing the data
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Nov 18, 2025 In this discussion, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, shares insights on the implications of the recent U.S. government shutdown on economic data releases. He explains the expected timing for key reports and discusses the Fed's cautious approach to a potential December rate cut. Jason also delves into market volatility driven by AI trade fatigue and evaluates how policy changes under a possible Trump 2.0 administration could impact inflation and Fed decisions. This insightful conversation offers a fresh perspective on navigating current market challenges.
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September Jobs Report Is Historical Data
- The September payrolls report will be released on November 20 and mainly reflects where the labor market was two months ago.
- That report is mostly 'old news' and won't give a real-time read on the current economy.
Unemployment Rate May Be Withheld
- Payrolls (establishment survey) will likely be released but the unemployment rate (household survey) may not due to data quality issues.
- Household surveys require manual calls and produce weaker-quality data after the shutdown.
CPI Data Could Be Significantly Delayed
- October CPI might be delayed because price collection requires in-person/store surveys and fieldwork.
- We may not get accurate inflation data until December or even January.