UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets, not macroeconomics'
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Nov 19, 2025 Market volatility can often be misleading, reflecting corporate-level shifts rather than macroeconomic changes. Recent signs of slowing durable goods spending in the US suggest a shift in consumer behavior rather than an economic downturn. Amidst this, policymakers remain largely unconcerned, with attention shifting towards UK CPI as a key indicator. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's ambitious investment pledges to the US are viewed as more symbolic than immediately actionable, while the Eurozone's inflation figures appear stable and uneventful.
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Volatility Isn’t A Macro Reassessment
- Market volatility often reflects corporate-level shifts rather than changes in the macroeconomic outlook.
- Paul Donovan warns against extrapolating firm-level signals into broad economic trends.
Refurbs Ahead Of Tariffs Changed Timing
- US consumers accelerated home refurbishments earlier in the year, likely anticipating tariffs.
- Donovan uses this example to explain why durable-goods spending may now appear to moderate.
Wealth Concentration Dampens Spillovers
- Current equity wealth concentration in the US means market noise may not affect aggregate consumer spending.
- Donovan suggests policymakers have little cause for concern from recent market moves.