UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: Venezuela - Visualizing the day after tomorrow
Oct 28, 2025
Alejo Czerwonko is the Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS and Alberto Rojas is a Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, both offering insights into Venezuela's complex economic landscape. They discuss the potential for recovery in Venezuela, highlighting its vast oil reserves and low extraction costs. The duo explores how improvements could positively impact neighboring economies and migration issues. They also analyze the outlook for Venezuelan financial assets, tackling deep challenges like sovereign debt restructuring.
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Long-Running Political Durability
- Chavismo has governed Venezuela for over 25 years and its political resilience makes transitions uncertain.
- The U.S. is increasing regional involvement, creating a new geopolitical dynamic around Venezuela.
Oil Potential Is Massive
- Venezuela sits on massive oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia in reported crude holdings, offering large upside under new conditions.
- Low extraction costs make the country attractive to oil companies if political and legal barriers fall.
Deep Crisis Creates Rebuild Opportunities
- The severe economic collapse sets the stage for potentially strong growth from a very low base.
- Wide gaps—like no functioning financial system and infrastructure decay—create sizable rebuild opportunities.