UBS On-Air: Market Moves How should I be positioned? with Paula Campbell Roberts (KKR) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
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Oct 31, 2025 Paula Campbell Roberts is the Chief Investment Strategist at KKR, focusing on macro views and asset allocation, while Jason Draho leads asset allocation at UBS. They delve into the dynamics of the U.S. economy, discussing GDP growth amidst a soft labor market. AI's influence on growth and its investment trajectory is highlighted, along with the implications of a higher-for-longer interest rate regime. They also consider global equity performance and recommend strategic investments in private credit, infrastructure, and selective real estate.
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Growth Likely To Improve From A Weaker Base
- Paula expects US growth to improve next year because current data likely overstates strength.
- She thinks revisions will show growth is weaker and that fiscal and monetary support will boost it from a lower base.
Productivity Plug Explains Growth–Jobs Gap
- Paula and Jason highlight a disconnect: solid headline GDP but a soft labor market.
- They attribute the gap to productivity gains and AI/CapEx lifting output without matching employment growth.
Tectonic Shifts Create A Higher‑For‑Longer Regime
- KKR's 'new regime' posits higher-for-longer rates driven by structural tectonic shifts.
- Key drivers include geopolitics, energy transition, demographics, AI, and fiscal stimulus raising price levels and volatility.