UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Jay Dobson is joined by Rob Thummel for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy evolution story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years ahead. Plus, thoughts on geopolitical risks to be mindful of when it comes to energy investing. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rob Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager, at Tortoise Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate has passed a bill that solidifies an unsustainable fiscal position, heading to the House amidst fiscal conservative pushback. This could lead to significant shifts in economic impacts, particularly in how wealth is redistributed. The discussion spans broader trade tensions, including potential import taxes and the implications for UK trade post-Brexit. Additionally, evolving trade dynamics between the UK and EU are explored, highlighting inconsistencies in US labor market data and the vigilance of investors on euro area unemployment.

Michael Lippert is a Vice President, Portfolio Manager, and serves as the Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, including an assessment of the energy requirements to sustain global demand, a look at the global competitive landscape, along with anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US administration seems to be retreating from the idea of “90 trade deals in 90 days”. With less than a week to go, they have a half-hearted agreement with the UK and a de-escalation with China, and little else. The idea is that interim agreements will be sought, retaining the 10% tax on US consumers of foreign products. Uncertainty about future product-specific taxes appears to be making it more difficult to do deals.

As we officially move into the second-half of 2025, Jason assesses the factors that have driven recent market performance and investor sentiment, along with outlines CIO’s near-to-medium term market outlook. Plus, a review the portfolio positioning recommendations per the July UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Over the past few days, Canada and the US stopped talking about trade, and started talking about trade again. Unusually, this was not a unilateral retreat by the US—Canada surrendered its digital services tax. Markets, quite rightly, are ignoring all of this. US President Trump cut taxes on US consumers of UK cars—from today the tax goes to 10%.

Join Jeff Hans, a Portfolio Manager at UBS Asset Management, as he dives into the recent performance of US equities. He discusses the tug-of-war between growth and value stocks, fueled by tech sector earnings. Jeff also shares intriguing insights from the latest investor conferences, highlighting stability in financials and the mixed outlook for consumer spending. With a cautious sense of optimism, he sheds light on the potential benefits of deregulation for mid-sized businesses, aiming to enhance market growth.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan's recent disinflation trend shows a slowdown in core inflation to 1.8% year-on-year, driven by shifts in non-fresh food prices. The discussion highlights broader disinflationary patterns in Europe compared to inflationary pressures in the US due to consumer spending and trade policy changes. It delves into how consumer habits, influenced by political views, intersect with the potential for rising inflation from trade taxes. The skepticism around trade agreements also underlines its impact on economic policies in the US.