UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Burkhard Varnholt, a prominent voice in global markets, shares his insights on recent geopolitical shifts affecting market trends, particularly the influence of the Israel-Iran conflict and the resilience of Asian markets. He also discusses market valuations and the notable impact on oil prices. In a personal twist, Burkhard recounts his exhilarating cycling adventure through the Swiss Alps, drawing parallels between navigating mountain challenges and the innovative spirit driving economic growth in Switzerland.

Discussions revolve around President Trump's potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair and its implications for economic policy. The independence of the Fed could be challenged if a political appointee takes charge. Upcoming GDP data will be crucial for gauging the US economy's resilience. The impact of new trade taxes on consumer prices and inventory levels is also analyzed, raising concerns about market stability and stockpiling by businesses.

Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO for PIMCO, joins Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, to navigate today's complex investment landscape. They discuss the implications of U.S. trade policy and shifting global dynamics, especially with China. The focus turns to inflation trends and strategic opportunities in fixed income markets. Ivascyn and Draho highlight the importance of liquidity management in light of rapid market changes and emphasize the need for adaptable investment strategies to thrive amidst uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent speech highlights a cautious approach to interest rates, emphasizing the impact of trade taxes and future inflation. The podcast dives into how geopolitical tensions, including the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, are affecting market dynamics. There’s also an intriguing discussion on how regional stability and global financial trends interact with local politics, touching on the rising polarization seen worldwide.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the convergence of public and private credit, along with the risks and opportunities within private credit to be mindful of. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research within the Portfolio Management Group, BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The podcast dives into the precarious ceasefire between Iran and Israel, analyzing its surprising impact on oil prices. Geopolitical tensions are overshadowed by investor confidence despite rising inflation and expected shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Additionally, it critiques the recent Congressional hearing featuring Fed Chair Powell, pointing out the lack of probing questions and the central bank's relevance in current market discussions. The interplay of global events and monetary strategies offers a fascinating landscape for investors.

With the summer season now officially underway, it is already shaping up to be an eventful one for investors. In addition to this past weekend’s geopolitical developments in the Middle East, policy developments on tariffs and taxes, the potential impact of tariffs on the economy, and corporate earnings will keep investors preoccupied. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We live in a world of political polarization and soundbite economics. That encourages sensationalism. Deckchair generals will offer extreme opinions on the US attacks on Iran. Both supporters and opponents the attacks are likely to dramatize events. Investors should be cautious of knee-jerk overreactions.

UBS WM Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses the current hostilities between Israel and Iran and what they might mean for the global economy and markets. Why have geopolitical crises historically dominated the headlines, but faded so quickly from the attention of investors? And are there tectonic shifts in global politics that investors can’t afford to ignore? Paul is joined by co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines potential scenarios as to how developments in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran could evolve, and how to prepare your portfolio accordingly. We also touch on what has been a busy week for the Fed, and other global central banks.