UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - Government gridlock, Trade update
Oct 17, 2025
Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas at UBS, provides keen insights into the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and its limited effects on financial markets and GDP. He discusses key negotiation points, particularly around ACA premium subsidies. The conversation also delves into recent US-China trade tensions, tracing provocations and potential future talks. Kurt highlights the implications of a looming Supreme Court case that could drastically reshape tariff policies. It's a lively exploration of critical market dynamics!
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Shutdown Stalls Over ACA Subsidies
- The government shutdown reached day 17 and could become the longest full shutdown since 2013.
- Little substantive progress exists because disputes over expiring ACA premium subsidies remain unresolved, risking a multi-week standoff.
Markets Unmoved By Shutdown So Far
- Financial markets have largely ignored the shutdown so far, focusing instead on earnings, tariffs, and credit-market concerns.
- Historical shutdowns have had minimal GDP impact unless they last much longer than typical short episodes.
Prioritize Big Economic Drivers
- Monitor shutdown duration closely because only prolonged closures meaningfully dent GDP and economic activity.
- Focus investment decisions on more powerful drivers like Fed policy and corporate earnings rather than short shutdowns.