UBS On-Air: Market Moves Macro Monthly Podcast with UBS Asset Management
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Oct 19, 2025 Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at UBS Asset Management, shares insights on the macroeconomic landscape. He discusses the paradox of strong U.S. GDP growth amid a weakening labor market, highlighting consumer resilience and AI investments. Evan tackles tariff-induced inflation, predicting it may stabilize around 4%. He also explores Asia's growth potential, especially through innovation in China and reforms in Korea. Finally, he warns about key risks to the U.S. economy, including potential recession and inflation resurgence.
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Strong Growth With Weaker Hiring
- U.S. growth is strong while employment has slowed, driven by wealthy consumers and AI capex.
- Firms are producing more with fewer hours, creating a high-productivity environment.
Tariffs Are Lifting Near-Term Inflation
- Tariff-driven price rises are pushing inflation higher in the near term.
- UBS expects tariffs could annualize inflation near 4% before easing later in the year.
Anticipate Continued Fed Easing
- The Fed will prioritize employment and likely continue cutting rates to avoid labor-market spirals.
- Expect two more cuts this year and one early next year to approach neutral around 3%.