UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Less tense?'
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Oct 27, 2025 Recent US-China trade tensions are reportedly easing, with softened tariff threats on the horizon. China may resume US soybean purchases, shifting from Argentinian sources. Attention turns to US inflation data, which fell below expectations, raising questions about data accuracy. Lower auto prices are helping pull inflation down, despite some inconsistencies. The Federal Reserve now has some leeway for rate cuts, while Argentina's surprising mid-term election results could have significant market impacts.
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Trade Tensions Appear To Ease
- Trade tensions between the US and China have been dialed down with a preliminary consensus ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting.
- The threatened 100% tariff and immediate rare-earth export controls appear to be off the table for now.
Soybean Demand Could Shift To US
- Officials suggest China may start buying US soybeans after recent talks.
- China has instead been buying Argentine soybeans so far this season.
CPI Drop Masks Data Quality Issues
- September US CPI came in a little below consensus but headline improvement masked data quality issues.
- Imputed prices and volatile low-frequency items like autos and OER drove much of the change.