UBS On-Air: Market Moves

In this enlightening discussion, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas at UBS, dive into the resilient U.S. economy, predicting 2% growth and inflation. They dissect the impact of tariffs on inflation and explore the Fed's tricky position on interest rate cuts, warning of potential asset bubbles. The conversation also touches on the transformative power of AI, the strategic advantages of international equities, and gold's role as a diversification tool.

Burkhard Varnholt, an expert on global and emerging markets reporting from South Africa, shares fascinating insights from Cape Town. He discusses the city's vibrant tourism boom, bustling airports, and the economic recovery fueled by foreign investment and demand for minerals. Burkhard highlights parallels with other emerging markets, particularly in Asia, showcasing the impact of commodity demand. Plus, he indulges listeners with travel tips and his favorite cycling route around the stunning Chapman’s Peak!

A recent Supreme Court hearing hinted that many tariffs from the Trump administration could be deemed illegal, boosting investor confidence. The potential for refunds could provide a fiscal lift to small US companies. However, the timeline for these refunds remains uncertain, with possible delays in Congress. There's also a debate about whether reduced tariffs will effectively lower prices, as inflation dynamics may be more complex. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady amidst evolving economic circumstances.

Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy and Solutions, dives into year-end planning strategies for retirement and tax savings. He discusses key changes coming in 2025, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Justin introduces concepts like tax diversification and the Savings Waterfall, and shares tips on loss harvesting and charitable distributions. He emphasizes the importance of charitable bunching before 2026 rule changes and highlights practical steps to avoid pitfalls in financial planning. This conversation is packed with actionable insights for every stage of retirement!

Central banks are in the spotlight, but don't expect much market movement today. Paul Donovan emphasizes the significance of the Bank of Japan's minutes amidst the chatter. He dives into the UK's fiscal challenges and the Chancellor's hints at potential tax rises. France's borrowing trends face political scrutiny, while off-year US races spark interest, though the public's engagement may be overstated. Plus, the median age of first-time homebuyers has risen to 40, reflecting shifting saving habits and a turn towards speculative investments.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas at the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares insights on key political and economic developments. He delves into the potential impacts of local and state elections on market trends and discusses the ramifications of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on GDP. Kurt also evaluates President Trump’s recent Asia trip regarding trade relations with China. Finally, he previews the Supreme Court’s hearing on the IEEPA, exploring potential outcomes and their implications for tariffs and the economy.

Discover the mystery behind the missing September US trade data due to a government shutdown. Learn how rerouted exports are distorting trade statistics and why Chinese exporters are getting creative to avoid tariffs. Dive into the implications of stockpiling and other factors affecting the trade balance. Explore insights from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey, revealing credit conditions in the US and Europe. Finally, hear about recent rate cuts and their role as insurance against labor market risks.

In this episode, Jeremy Zirin, a Senior Portfolio Manager at UBS Asset Management, offers keen insights into the evolving equity markets. He discusses how AI adoption is reshaping tech earnings and highlights key focus areas for Q3 earnings, including consumer sentiment and industrial CapEx. Jeremy also analyzes the impact of Fed policy on market leadership and compares current tech valuations to the dot-com bubble. He advocates for a balanced portfolio approach, blending growth and value stocks to navigate potential market shifts.

Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist at UBS, shares his insights on the market and macroeconomic landscape heading into Q4 2025. He discusses the impressive momentum in U.S. equities and addresses concerns about valuations, especially influenced by the MAG-7 stocks. Paul also examines the implications of upcoming government policies on small businesses and highlights the likely shift towards pro-growth strategies. Additionally, he explores the evolving monetary policy landscape and its impact on market expectations.

The latest US manufacturing sentiment poll sparks concerns over its reliability due to falling response rates and rising political polarization. Frequent economic surveys may misguide investors, overshadowing substantial data. Key comments from the ECB and Fed loom as uncertainties surround policy direction, particularly after a rare three-way Fed vote. Local elections hint at economic trends, while a Supreme Court case on presidential tariffs could influence market dynamics. OPEC+ signals a pause in output, but its effect on oil prices remains limited.