UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - IEEPA hearing, Election Day, Government shutdown
Nov 4, 2025
Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas at the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares insights on key political and economic developments. He delves into the potential impacts of local and state elections on market trends and discusses the ramifications of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on GDP. Kurt also evaluates President Trump’s recent Asia trip regarding trade relations with China. Finally, he previews the Supreme Court’s hearing on the IEEPA, exploring potential outcomes and their implications for tariffs and the economy.
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Shutdown Raises Fed And Data Risks
- A prolonged U.S. government shutdown raises the risk of material economic consequences beyond short-term payback effects.
- Missing public-sector data complicates the Fed's policy path and could delay expected rate cuts.
Watch For Imminent Shutdown Resolution
- Expect a near-term resolution because bipartisan talks could secure a continuing resolution with a few more votes.
- Monitor Capitol mood music this week as votes could reopen the government within days.
Local Elections Signal National Leverage
- State and local election outcomes offer political signals that can influence federal negotiations and narratives.
- A Democratic sweep would strengthen Democrats' leverage in shutdown talks while a GOP win in New Jersey would be framed as momentum for the Trump agenda.