UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Polls and politics'
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Nov 3, 2025 The latest US manufacturing sentiment poll sparks concerns over its reliability due to falling response rates and rising political polarization. Frequent economic surveys may misguide investors, overshadowing substantial data. Key comments from the ECB and Fed loom as uncertainties surround policy direction, particularly after a rare three-way Fed vote. Local elections hint at economic trends, while a Supreme Court case on presidential tariffs could influence market dynamics. OPEC+ signals a pause in output, but its effect on oil prices remains limited.
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Surveys Are Losing Reliability
- Survey response rates and political polarisation have reduced the reliability of survey-based economic evidence.
- Investors risk over-weighting frequent but inaccurate surveys when proper data are missing.
Frequency Bias Distorts Market Focus
- Frequent surveys get undue attention due to 'frequency bias' and distract from more important data.
- Markets may mistake high-frequency noisy signals for meaningful economic information.
Don't Replace Hard Data With Polls
- Avoid substituting low-quality survey numbers for missing hard economic data.
- Resist the temptation to treat inaccurate polls as definitive when alternatives are unavailable.