UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Supremes'
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Nov 6, 2025 A recent Supreme Court hearing hinted that many tariffs from the Trump administration could be deemed illegal, boosting investor confidence. The potential for refunds could provide a fiscal lift to small US companies. However, the timeline for these refunds remains uncertain, with possible delays in Congress. There's also a debate about whether reduced tariffs will effectively lower prices, as inflation dynamics may be more complex. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady amidst evolving economic circumstances.
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Court Signals Possible Rebate To Importers
- US Supreme Court questioning suggested many of Trump's tariffs may be found illegal, lifting tariff-sensitive stocks.
- Paul Donovan says an adverse ruling could effectively rebate tariffs paid, acting as a domestic fiscal boost.
Refunds Help Small Importers But Prices May Stick
- Refunds of tariffs would primarily benefit US importing companies and provide disproportionate support to smaller firms.
- Donovan warns tariff cuts may not reverse prior price rises because past tariff-driven inflation can be sticky.
Timing And Reimposition Could Limit Impact
- Any rebate would not be immediate because refunds require a functioning government and possibly congressional action.
- Reimposition under different authority could change product-country tariff rates and complicate inflation dynamics.