UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Credit where credit’s due?'
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Nov 4, 2025 Discover the mystery behind the missing September US trade data due to a government shutdown. Learn how rerouted exports are distorting trade statistics and why Chinese exporters are getting creative to avoid tariffs. Dive into the implications of stockpiling and other factors affecting the trade balance. Explore insights from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey, revealing credit conditions in the US and Europe. Finally, hear about recent rate cuts and their role as insurance against labor market risks.
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US Trade Data Distorted And Missing
- US trade data for September won't be published due to the federal government shutdown.
- Rerouting of Chinese exports via third countries and tariff-driven stockpiling distort bilateral trade numbers.
Export Rerouting And Stockpiling Example
- Under President Trump's first term, Chinese exporters rerouted goods through third countries to avoid tariffs.
- Companies also stockpiled and later consumed inventory, further skewing monthly US trade balances.
Credit Conditions Not Severely Restrictive
- The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows credit standards and costs have not sharply constrained US activity.
- European patterns are similar, implying monetary policy isn't exceptionally tight in either region.