UBS On-Air: Market Moves

China’s November retail sales disappointed. Some of this can be blamed on the timing of the singles shopping festival. The pattern of sales showed consumers spending in areas with government support, but in doing so cut back on areas without government support. This demand switching in an overall subdued demand environment has parallels to Japan’s “spending voucher” initiatives in the 1990s. The data keeps up pressure for fiscal policy to tackle consumers’ apprehensions about the future.

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, will outline top ideas for 2025, share key investment insights, and provide strategies for achieving long-term investment success. Recorded on December 5th.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors as we approach 2025, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Kewjin “Kew” Yuoh, Partner, Portfolio Manager with Lord Abbett, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus (including Artificial Intelligence) for the US Information Technology sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology & Telecom Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB cut rates by 25bps as was expected. The ECB does not want to be running a restrictive monetary policy at the moment, and more rate cuts are expected next year. The ECB’s challenge is that data tends to understate economic activity, so knowing precisely how the economy is faring is difficult.

On the final episode of Viewpoints for 2024, Burkhard reflects on what has been a busy year, spanning market and macro developments, along with shares expectations for 2025.

As 2024 comes to a close, the CIO Fixed Income team reflects on performance across sub-sectors (including Municipals, Investment Grade, and Preferreds), and share expectations for the year-ahead. Plus, thoughts on positioning across the broader asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus for the US healthcare sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Eric Potoker, Healthcare Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation data is due for November. These numbers are something of a mess. A quarter of the index is a fantasy price no one pays. Income inequality means the average price is less representative of most US households’ experience. The threat of taxes on US consumers from the next administration means this inflation data is not necessarily a good guide to 2025 trends.

In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as we head into 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy