UBS On-Air: Market Moves

As US trade policy continues to evolve quickly, Shane drops by to update us on the latest, and what the near-term may consist of with respect to negotiations. We also discuss progress around the budget resolution up on Capitol Hill, and recap Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s White House visit earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs in on the recent tariff-related volatility in the markets and shares guidance on how investors should consider responding, along with whether the US is heading towards a recession, stagflation, or something else. Plus, thoughts on how the Fed might respond to the market volatility, and a high-speed look around global equity markets.

US President Trump’s retreat from trade taxes took less than 24 hours. However, taxes on imports from China increased, and the universal 10% import tax stays in place. None of these taxes existed a week ago, and US consumers will have to use income to pay them. Higher taxes on specific products remain, and more are promised.

We examine how regions, such as emerging Asia and Latin America, are feeling the impacts US tariff policy. Plus, thoughts on how EM investors should consider adjusting their portfolios, and what to be on the lookout for in the months ahead. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump implemented an extraordinary tax increase on US consumers overnight. If the 104% tax increase on goods from China is not reversed, it is likely to push the US into recession more rapidly. China’s economy is negatively impacted—but the larger each round of tariffs, the less their marginal impact on foreign growth. USD 55 million of tea imported from China is subject to the 104% tax (in 1773 the UK cut tea taxes).

A roundtable discussion around the kind of that role can private assets play in a longer-term investment plan, including a performance update and outlook for private equity, private credit, real estate, and hedge funds. Featured are Jennifer Liu, Private Markets Strategist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Jon Woloshin, Real Estate & Lodging Analyst Americas, and Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets swung wildly yesterday on apparently false reports of a 90-day halt to US trade taxes (except for China). The volatility highlights two problems. Erratic policymaking means stories of dramatic shifts in policy are credible. The move toward Schlesinger’s “imperial presidency” model means policy shifts depend on the whims of one person. These make fake news plausible, creating market volatility.

This chat features Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office. He dives into the recent tariff announcements and their ripple effects on market volatility and economic forecasts. Jason discusses the potential risks of recession and the importance of navigating portfolio strategies during these uncertain times. He also highlights investment opportunities in the tech sector, particularly AI, while emphasizing the role of financial advisors in crafting personalized strategies for clients.

Following last week’s tariff announcements from the White House, we discuss the overall impact of these developments to economies across Asia, along with the impact to Asian markets. Plus, a look at how Asian economies are preparing to weather the tariff shocks, along with positioning recommendations across the region. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Asian equity markets crashed, with Hong Kong markets down over 10%. Over the weekend, US administration officials gave contradictory statements on trade taxes, causing investors to question the existence of a masterplan. Attempts to justify attacks on the Heard Island penguins only emphasized the peculiarity of the tariff formula. US President Trump took time from their golf weekend to twice post that equity declines were “on purpose”.