UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Market outlook: Is the glass still half full? with Henry McVey (KKR) & Solita Marcelli (UBS CIO)
Mar 29, 2025
Join Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas for UBS, and Henry McVey, KKR’s Head of Global Macro, as they dissect the market outlook for 2025 and beyond. They explore the balance of caution and optimism in a volatile landscape driven by U.S. productivity. The discussion highlights adaptive investment strategies amid geopolitical tensions and emphasizes opportunities in AI and infrastructure. Insights from their travels to regions like Mexico and China reveal key challenges and overlooked investments beyond major tech firms.
26:30
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Quick takeaways
- Despite a 30% chance of economic downturn, the U.S. economy remains resilient with strong fundamentals like low unemployment and job growth.
- Investment firms are increasingly focusing on AI and infrastructure as critical themes, aiming to capitalize on productivity gains and evolving market opportunities.
Deep dives
Economic Outlook amid Uncertainty
The discussion highlights a growing uncertainty in the economy, with the probability of an economic downturn estimated at around 30% within the next six to twelve months. Factors contributing to this outlook include the indirect effects of tariffs on buying behavior and business sentiment, particularly concerning trade relations with Mexico and Canada. Despite these risks, the U.S. economy is noted to be entering this phase with strong fundamentals, such as low unemployment and job growth. This resilience is reflected in relatively stable credit spreads, suggesting that, although growth may moderate from last year's levels, a recession is not anticipated.
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