UBS On-Air: Market Moves Market outlook: Is the glass still half full? with Henry McVey (KKR) & Solita Marcelli (UBS CIO)
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Mar 29, 2025 Join Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas for UBS, and Henry McVey, KKR’s Head of Global Macro, as they dissect the market outlook for 2025 and beyond. They explore the balance of caution and optimism in a volatile landscape driven by U.S. productivity. The discussion highlights adaptive investment strategies amid geopolitical tensions and emphasizes opportunities in AI and infrastructure. Insights from their travels to regions like Mexico and China reveal key challenges and overlooked investments beyond major tech firms.
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Cautious Optimism for Market Outlook
- KKR's outlook for the year is cautiously optimistic, expecting a bumpy but ultimately positive trajectory.
- This is driven by strong productivity in the U.S., fiscal initiatives in Europe, and positive developments in Asia and the Middle East.
Economic Downturn Risk Increased
- The probability of an economic downturn in the next 6-12 months has increased to 30%.
- Positive factors include low unemployment, job growth, and a healthy consumer base.
KKR's Adaptive Playbook
- KKR is adapting its playbook to navigate market uncertainty by focusing on corporate carve-outs, public-to-privates, and activist situations.
- They are leveraging existing platforms and prioritizing transactions with extra cushion due to increased market volatility.