UBS On-Air: Market Moves

In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as we head into 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumers have been unenthusiastic, and exports are not necessarily dependable. Yesterday, China’s politburo signaled additional monetary and fiscal stimulus would be forthcoming. If US President-elect Trump taxes US consumers of goods from China, that may be a convenient excuse for China to cut taxes for its consumers.

Despite the emergence of growing global political risks in recent days and weeks, markets and investors appear to be unfazed - Jason offers thoughts as to why that’s the case. We also reflect on the November employment report, and what the state of the US labor market today might mean for monetary policy near-term. Plus, a look at CIO’s current market outlook and positioning views. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President-elect Trump gave a wide ranging interview, touching on several points that matter to investors. Trump seemed to acknowledge the independence of the Federal Reserve (the chair cannot be dismissed on presidential whim). This will reassure markets. Investors may, however, be concerned by the determination to deport migrants established in the US economy.

As we close out another trading week, Mike Gourd drops by to recap the latest employment data, along with the remarks from several Fed officials this past week, including those of Chairman Jerome Powell. Plus, a look at what investors should expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends in employment, US President-elect Trump is proposing policies that might mark a structural break in employment conditions (most obviously deportations and tariffs).

In this episode, Shane updates on several key legislative priorities of Congress before year-end, including a government funding bill, a Farm bill, and the National Defense Authorization Act. We also take inventory of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees, and the prospects for confirmations in early 2025. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the momentum across US equity markets, and weighs how a range of risk-factors could impact the longevity of the bull-run as we head into 2025. Burkhard also ponders the relationship between valuations and return expectations, plus shares thoughts on geopolitical developments within France and South Korea in recent days.

As expected, French Prime Minister Barnier lost a vote of confidence. That was the shortest-lived French government in over sixty years (he did outlast the lifespan of une salade verte, however). The likely options for fiscal policy are either a compromise budget under the new government, or rolling the 2024 budget into 2025. Neither offers much fiscal consolidation, but investors know this already.

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to economies across Asia, namely that of China. We also spend time identifying key investment opportunities across the region that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy