UBS On-Air: Market Moves

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to economies across Asia, namely that of China. We also spend time identifying key investment opportunities across the region that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the UK, 11pm is when pubs close and the risk of sending incoherent text messages increases. In South Korea, 11pm was when President Yoon decided to declare martial law. Parliament rejected this, martial law was rescinded, the cabinet is threatening to resign en masse, and impeachment proceedings against Yoon start today. The Bank of Korea pledged unlimited liquidity to markets.

Our series of year ahead conversations continue with a look at expectations for emerging market assets in 2025, including equities, bonds, and currencies. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over the budget. A likely scenario would be Barnier continuing as a caretaker prime minister, and the 2024 budget being rolled over.

Are the markets getting too frothy, and have investors become too exuberant? Jason weighs these concerns, along with takes inventory of tariffs being considered by the incoming US administration, along with the potential market impact of them. We also preview a busy week ahead for US labor market data, and Fed speakers. Plus, thoughts on how to position for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President-elect Trump has threatened to tax US consumers aggressively via tariffs, if countries “replace” the dollar. It is not clear what “replacing” means. The US dollar is only one international invoicing currency among many. Over half of Eurozone exports are invoiced in euros, for instance. Invoicing status is of limited importance.

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now, we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, join our global livestream where the Global Head of Investment Communications Kiran Ganesh and colleagues will outline our top ideas for 2025, share key investment insights, and provide strategies for achieving long-term investment success.

The French budget and bond yields are attracting attention, with the media ever eager to spot another Truss debacle. This weekend will (presumably) see some fevered politicking in Paris as politicians try to come up with a budget that will not scare markets, but will also not lead to a collapse of the government. France’s deficit is not sustainable, but the government is not actively seeking to make it dramatically worse; so Truss analogies are probably inappropriate for now.

US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure deflator offered no surprises with regard to inflation—though it did show that inflation was more driven by supply problems than demand (according to Federal Reserve analysis).

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.