UBS On-Air: Market Moves

In this insightful discussion, Richard Bernstein, Founder and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, teams up with Jason Draho, UBS CIO's Head of Asset Allocation Americas. They delve into the macroeconomic landscape as 2025 approaches, examining the U.S. economy's resilience despite inflation. The duo explores the impact of rising interest rates on markets, advocating for a focus on value stocks. They also debate gold versus cryptocurrencies, suggesting gold as a stable investment. Join them for a deep dive into strategic positioning in uncertain times!

The discussion dives into the intriguing implications of social media on governance. It highlights bold tax proposals from the US President-elect, including a 25% levy on imports from Mexico and Canada, plus a 10% tax on Chinese goods. These aggressive moves could drastically affect consumer behavior and international trade dynamics. The episode offers insights into the intersection of politics and economic policy, raising questions about the future of consumerism.

A holiday trading week sets the stage for a deep dive into market dynamics, sparked by the nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Insights into the U.S. economy’s growth trajectory highlight risks like inflation and recession. The discussion contrasts Donald Trump's past economic policies with today's landscape and the potential impacts on treasury markets. As year-end approaches, investment strategies for 2025 are outlined, focusing on promising sectors such as AI, gold, and real estate amidst ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

The recent nomination of Bessent as treasury secretary has sparked positive reactions in the markets, highlighting the importance of predictable economic policies. Investors are relieved as Bessent's orthodox approach contrasts with the unpredictability of some candidates. The discussion also touches on consumer sentiment and the potential impact of political divisions. With trade tariffs as a bargaining tool, the implications for the economy are significant, particularly relating to upcoming retail events like Black Friday.

Mike Gourd, an Asset Allocation Strategist at UBS Chief Investment Office, shares invaluable insights for investors eyeing 2025. He discusses the expected shift towards lower interest rates and how this will influence cash and treasury yields. Gourd introduces the Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIO) framework, emphasizing strategic investments in AI and the semiconductor industry. He also highlights the optimistic outlook for technology stocks driven by increased AI spending, urging listeners to diversify their portfolios.

A former US Congressperson’s withdrawal from the attorney general nomination raises questions about political orthodoxy and market stability. The discussion delves into how these political shifts subtly impact financial markets. UK retail sales data and US consumer confidence surveys post-election are critically analyzed, providing insight into economic sentiments. The episode also touches on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies amidst ongoing inflation concerns, revealing the intricate dance between politics and finance.

Learn about key developments that will shape the next stage of the decade, including political change in the US, economic stimulus in China, geopolitical developments and lower interest rates. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly suggest consumer spending is behind the improving trade data. Chip demand has been focused on investment spending lately, and shipping construction has too long a lead time to be a short-term indicator of global demand.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares expectations for the year ahead, across global regions. We also spend time reflecting on this year’s “roaring twenties” scenario - notably its’ impact to global growth and markets, along with its’ anticipated presence throughout this decade.

UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK energy pricing (despite large-scale renewable energy generation, gas prices determine what consumers pay). Bank of England Governor Bailey yesterday put some emphasis on service sector inflation, while advocating a gradual reduction of rates.