UBS On-Air: Market Moves

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regional numbers are all out, and final consumer price data almost never changes from the initial release. Markets are also comfortable in their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fiscal policies of the incoming administration. We also touch on the implications of potential fiscal policy to the course of monetary policy, along with assess the integrity of the “Trump trade” following recent indications of cracks. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment to the tax increases is being sought. The challenge of the proposed tariffs is not just the rate, but also the breadth (and the possibility of universal blanket tariffs).

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff picks and cabinet nominations of the incoming Trump administration. Plus, a look at incoming Congressional leadership, and a review of the Congressional agenda priorities between now and year end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to nations such as China) to the US inflationary environment. We also calculate whether tariffs will ultimately pay for lower taxes in the US.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

We get US consumer price inflation data today. In one sense, the numbers are curiously unimportant. There are potentially competing forces at work on future US inflation. The fantasy owners’ equivalent rent measure should slow, but does not change anyone’s inflation reality. Oil prices may be lower, depending on US supply and Middle Eastern policies. Larger fiscal deficits, labor deportations, and consumer taxes via tariffs would all add to inflation pressures.

We spotlight the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication which breaks down the associated costs of long-term care, along with solutions to consider. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy