UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expectations are skewed towards prices of high frequency purchases (food and fuel). Trade tariffs, as a sales tax, increase prices paid by US consumers—but generally for lower frequency purchases. As such, the impact on living standards may be greater than the impact on perceived inflation.

In the wake of the US election outcome, Jason breaks down what a second Trump term means for the markets, the US economy, and monetary policy. Plus, thoughts on the recent market momentum, and whether it can last, along with a look at CIO’s investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and ElectionWatch Co-lead, provides an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Strategist, Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Strategist, and Brad Ball, Financials Strategist, dive into three of the most election-sensitive sectors.

China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’s consumer price inflation data suggested consumer weakness). There might be a reluctance to admit that current policies are not working, or a desire to keep some fiscal firepower in reserve to deal with the risk of trade taxes in 2025.

As we close out another trading week, Brian recaps the FOMC policy meeting, along with notable economic data releases from over the past few days. We also spend time examining some economic implications of this week’s US election outcome. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US, David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income provide our initial reaction to the current vote count, equity and fixed income markets moves, and more.

On this episode of Viewpoints, and in the wake of the US election, Burkhard weighs what a second Trump term means for the markets, and how investors are balancing the prospects of lower corporate tax rates and less business regulations, with higher tariffs and wider budget deficits. Burkhard also discusses the concerns of the ‘bond vigilantes’ and what those concerns might mean for treasuries.

Every pundit claims they know the reason for the US election outcome. This pundit is no different. In exit polls, Republican voters’ biggest concern was the economy and 75% of US voters said inflation was a hardship this year. Three years of durable goods price deflation are not noticed by voters, who focus on price levels of high-frequency purchases (like food). The election may have been won and lost in the aisles of Walmart, over the price of a Snickers bar.

On this post-Election Day episode, Shane breaks down the known results (including for the race for the White House, along with the many Congressional races). Plus, reflects on Decision 2024 voting trends and turnout. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this discussion, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, dives into the political landscape following the Republican Senate call and the uncertainty of the House and presidency. He highlights how financial markets are responding to the possibility of a Trump victory, noting that campaign rhetoric may not fully translate into actual policies. The conversation also touches on voter concerns about inflation and examines key economic indicators in Europe, shedding light on the European Central Bank's stance amid these shifts.