UBS On-Air: Market Moves CIO Global Livestream: Navigating political uncertainties - Risks and opportunities
Mar 5, 2025
Explore the latest on U.S. trade and tariff impacts, especially regarding Mexico and China. Dive into the current political and economic uncertainties affecting the market, with a lens on geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Unpack the Federal Reserve's strategies in response to inflation and rate expectations. Discover the promising potential of Chinese tech stocks and AI advancements. Finally, examine inflation dynamics and hedging strategies, while considering how European nationalism might shape U.S. investment opportunities.
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Tariff Impact on US Economy
- The U.S. economy entered 2024 with strong momentum, but tariffs pose a significant downside risk.
- Economists are concerned about the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. growth.
US Policy Uncertainty
- Policy uncertainty in the U.S. has spiked due to various factors including tariffs, budget cuts, and tax cut extensions.
- Despite headlines, the magnitude of budget cuts so far is relatively small and unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. fiscal situation.
Ukraine-US Relations and Ceasefire
- The US-Ukraine relationship is evolving negatively, impacting military aid, but has prompted strong support from Europe.
- Despite this, the base case remains a ceasefire in Ukraine this year, though its robustness is uncertain.