UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Top of the Morning: March jobs report, US trade policy, & the week ahead
Apr 4, 2025
The podcast dives into the March jobs report, revealing surprising growth in non-farm payrolls alongside a slight rise in unemployment. Insights into the US labor market suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook despite slower wage growth. Listeners learn about the impacts of new tariffs on the economy, including a dip in manufacturing and a surge in vehicle sales as consumers rush before changes take effect. The discussion also touches on critical upcoming economic indicators and the political backdrop shaping these trends.
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Quick takeaways
- The March jobs report shows a positive trend with 228,000 non-farm payrolls added, despite downward revisions suggesting cautious optimism.
- Recent U.S. tariff announcements, particularly a 34% tariff on imports from China, pose significant economic risks and potential recession fears.
Deep dives
Current Employment Landscape
The March jobs report indicates a positive trend in the labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 228,000, surpassing expectations. However, there were revisions downward by 48,000 for the previous months, suggesting a need for cautious interpretation. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, marking the highest point since late 2021, but remains within a manageable range. Average hourly earnings have shown a modest increase of 3.8% year-over-year, reflecting a moderation in wage growth that does not raise immediate concerns.
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