UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - From uncertainty to Risk
Mar 31, 2025
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, shares his insights on the market's uncertain future. He discusses the imminent announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration and its implications for global markets. Concerns about slowing growth and recession risk are also addressed, alongside contrasting consumer sentiments and stable employment statistics. Draho provides positioning recommendations from the latest UBS House View, guiding investors to seek quality assets amid volatility.
19:09
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Quick takeaways
- The impending announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to create market uncertainty and concerns over economic growth.
- Despite declining consumer and business sentiment, stable labor market indicators suggest ongoing economic resilience and cautious optimism for future spending.
Deep dives
Impending Tariff Announcements and Market Reactions
The upcoming announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration is building anticipation and uncertainty in the markets. Expected to be revealed on April 2nd, these tariffs could target various countries, particularly in Europe and Asia, while also including product-specific tariffs on industries like pharmaceuticals and auto parts. The effective tariff rate on imports is anticipated to rise significantly, potentially reaching the mid-teens percentage. However, if the tariffs become excessively high, they risk adversely affecting economic growth and government revenue, highlighting the administration's need for a measured approach.
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