Former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth and 538's political analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss the legal and political implications of Trump's guilty verdict on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, including potential sentencing options, impact on the upcoming election, analysis of national polls, and voter sentiment following recent events.

Discussing the closing arguments in Trump's first trial for falsifying business records. Analyzing defense strategies, jury deliberation process, unanimous jury decision, and potential outcomes. Insightful discussion with a law professor and former federal prosecutor.

Discussing Nikki Haley's endorsement of Trump, upcoming UK elections on July 4, and analysis of recent primary outcomes in Georgia and Oregon.

Exploring the 'beer question' trope in past elections, focusing on candidate likability and relatability. Reflecting on George W. Bush's victory based on being the candidate to 'have a beer with'. Analyzing how likability influences voter perceptions and election outcomes. Discussing the strategies of political figures to appear relatable and likable, and the significance of personal appeal in campaigning.

Debates between Biden and Trump, strategic timing of presidential debates, voter turnout concerns for 2024 election, analyzing voter turnout in polling models, limitations of margin of error in polling

2024 election brings concerns about democracy to the forefront. Focus groups reveal diverse voter perspectives - from fear of attacks to skepticism about election integrity. Biden and Trump supporters express deep worries, with Trump supporters emphasizing voter fraud conspiracy theories. Voter concerns extend to limitations of two-party system, voter suppression, and dissatisfaction with political institutions. Analysis shows stark divide between Democrats and Republicans in perceptions of democracy post-election. Acceptance of norm-breaking behavior in politics raises concerns about impact on democratic norms.

Exploring the impact of 'soccer moms' in the 1996 presidential campaign, challenges gender assumptions about women's political preferences, and the shift towards social welfare issues. Discusses the evolution of women's role in politics, the influence of suburban women, and the complex motivations of swing voters, especially regarding women's issues like Roe v. Wade.

The podcast discusses President Biden's challenge in battleground states, split ticket voting trends, and strategies for Democratic Party unity. Analysis includes Maryland's competitive Senate primary race and West Virginia's political dynamics.

Exploring the discrepancies between conventional wisdom and statistical forecasts for the 2024 election. Analyzing betting markets' opinions on Trump's chances and potential VP candidates like Tim Scott and Kristi Noem. Delving into the dynamics of probability analysis and outcomes such as party realignment and legal implications for Trump before the election.

Exploring the iconic phrase 'It's the economy, stupid' from Clinton's 1992 campaign. Discussing its impact on voter perceptions, strategic messaging, and lasting influence. Reflecting on the economy's role in past elections and its significance in predicting future outcomes.