FiveThirtyEight Politics Harris Gains In The Polls
Aug 5, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris, recently nominated for the Democratic candidacy, shares insights on her path to becoming the nominee. The discussion delves into potential running mates like Governor Josh Shapiro and the electoral significance of swing states. Polling trends indicate Harris's favorable standing against Trump, especially among younger voters. The conversation also touches on how political messaging affects voter perception and the rising concern over inflation, showcasing voters' preferences for economic stability.
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Current State of the Race
- Kamala Harris leads Trump nationally and in some battleground states, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages.
- The Electoral College may still favor Trump, as it has historically benefited Republicans.
Toss-Up Election
- The race is considered a toss-up, with Harris's lead falling within the margin of error.
- It's too early to definitively declare a favorite, and there's potential for non-response bias in early polling.
Increased Democratic Enthusiasm
- Democratic enthusiasm has increased for Harris, with supporters actively organizing and fundraising.
- This positive engagement contrasts with prior messaging focused on fear and anger.