FiveThirtyEight Politics What Americans Think Of Kamala Harris
Aug 12, 2024
Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst, and Ruth Igielnik, a New York Times polling editor, dive into the evolving dynamics of the Harris-Trump showdown. They discuss the rising enthusiasm among Democrats for Kamala Harris in battleground states. The conversation highlights Trump’s claims about biased polling and explores the phenomenon of 'poll denialism.' As they analyze voter perceptions and the implications of recent polling data, they also unveil engaging insights into the complexities of political identity and campaign strategies.
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Polling Shift and Enthusiasm
- NYT polls shifted from Biden's worst to Harris' best, showing a tighter race overall.
- Increased enthusiasm for Harris among Democrats and Independents is a key factor.
Demographic Shifts
- Harris' improved performance with young, Black, and Latino voters compared to Biden.
- These demographic shifts may be contributing to Harris' overall lead, though it's early.
Campaign Strategies
- Harris' campaign adopts median voter theory, taking hawkish border stance and opposing tip tax.
- Trump's campaign focuses on personal attacks rather than policy, potentially hindering his appeal.