FiveThirtyEight Politics
What Americans Think Of Kamala Harris
Aug 12, 2024
Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst, and Ruth Igielnik, a New York Times polling editor, dive into the evolving dynamics of the Harris-Trump showdown. They discuss the rising enthusiasm among Democrats for Kamala Harris in battleground states. The conversation highlights Trump’s claims about biased polling and explores the phenomenon of 'poll denialism.' As they analyze voter perceptions and the implications of recent polling data, they also unveil engaging insights into the complexities of political identity and campaign strategies.
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Quick takeaways
- Recent polling indicates Kamala Harris leading Trump by four points in battleground states, reflecting increased Democratic enthusiasm and shifting voter demographics.
- Trump's campaign faces challenges as his social media strategy lacks focus on policy, contributing to voter apprehension amidst a tightening race.
Deep dives
Polling Dynamics in the Harris-Trump Race
Recent polling shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump by four percentage points in key battleground states, with similar margins across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This shift represents a significant change from earlier polling where Trump held a slight lead or showed a dead heat against Biden. The Democrats are now showing increased enthusiasm, with nearly 30% more Democrats expressing satisfaction with Harris as their nominee compared to earlier this year. However, analysts caution that the race remains tight, and while Harris is performing better than Biden did, the polling is still within the margin of error.
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