On The Market

What the heck is happening with the US economy? Stocks are down, now they’re up, mortgage rates are dropping—wait, scratch that—they’re back up again, the Fed could have a new chair, and if they cut rates, interest rates could…rise? A “technical” recession is on the way, but will it have the same effects as the last one? We need some backup to explain the state of the US economy, and J Scott is here to do just that. J wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing and is known as one of the most economically aware real estate investors. Today, we’re diving into it all: mortgage rates, recession chances, inflation rates, tariffs, trade wars, future home price predictions, and what J plans to do with his money. Home prices are already unstable, but could a recession, combined with high inventory and low demand, push us over the edge? This may not be another 2008, for many reasons, but the psychological effect of a recession can be severe—especially on homebuyers and sellers. We’re giving you J’s complete overview of the economy today. In This Episode We Cover Whether or not home prices are at risk as we enter a “technical” recession J’s investment plan for 2025 and the assets he’s most bullish on The massive undersupply problem that’s propping up the housing market Inflation forecasts and the unexpected tariff side effects that could cost Americans Why “just buy American” won’t stop you from feeling inflation How the Fed cutting rates could…raise rates? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 315 - Stagflation Risk Rising Fast as US Economy Falls Out of Balance J's BiggerPockets Profile Grab J’s Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing” Jump to topic: (0:00) Intro(2:04) Home Prices (Probably) Won’t Crash(8:24) Still SO Undersupplied(9:56) The “Technical” Recession Coming(14:45) GDP Will Drop(18:26) Inflation Forecast(22:58) Just Buy American Goods?(28:15) New Fed Chair?(34:23) J’s Investment Plan Check out more resources from this show on ⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠ and  ⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-316 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dive into the phenomenon of stagflation, a rare and troubling blend of inflation and stagnant growth. The potential economic implications are severe, affecting everything from unemployment to consumer confidence. Historical insights from the 1970s crisis reveal the impact on real estate prices that could echo today. Learn about the Federal Reserve's dwindling options to combat this looming threat. Also, discover how smart real estate investing could provide opportunities despite the economic challenges.

The housing market may be at greater risk than many of us thought. An economic trifecta is forming. If all three conditions hit at once, it could spell serious problems for anyone in the real estate industry. We may be close to a time when high home prices, high mortgage rates, and a recession all meet, causing a significant slowdown with effects that could hurt everyone who buys, sells, or helps transact on homes. But how likely is this to happen?The past month has been a wild ride for the economy. Mortgage rates fell dramatically but are now shooting back up. Inflation and unemployment fears are peaking as consumer confidence drops to unprecedented levels. And now, new tariffs could drive costs even higher. This could change everything, weakening the US dollar and making buying a house even harder.Every real estate investor, agent, lender, or professional should understand these risks because the effects could be severe. In this episode, we’re breaking down all the latest economic changes and how they affect the housing market.In This Episode We CoverNew risks to the housing market that could cause big changes for buyers and sellersWhy interest rates are starting to reverse, shooting back up EVEN with high recession riskThe trifecta of bad news for the housing market and what investors must know nowWhat a weakening dollar means for mortgage rates and the US economy as a wholeTransaction volume forecasts and whether we’ll still see a hot spring homebuying seasonAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseJoin BiggerPockets for FREESign Up for the On the Market NewsletterFind Investor-Friendly LendersDave's BiggerPockets ProfileBiggerPockets Real Estate 1106 - The One True “Inflation-Proof” Investment (EVEN with Tariffs)Invest in Any Market Cycle with “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-314 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Neal Bawa, a data-driven real estate investor and founder of Multifamily University, shares his profound insights on smart investing. He reveals how to accurately predict housing market trends and why many investors should look beyond their local markets. Discover the six-metric formula Neal uses to identify booming markets and which type of housing renters actually prefer. He also discusses the unique challenges of the Austin market and his current investment strategies amidst high interest rates. This conversation is a treasure trove for future-minded investors!

Consumer confidence is plummeting, with fears of a return to 1980s-style inflation. China's trade strategies could shake the global economy, leaving Americans anxious about their financial future. Zillow is looking to unveil hidden listings that could change the game for buyers. Rising construction costs and tariffs are a major concern for investors, affecting renovation budgets. As markets fluctuate, finding adaptive strategies is crucial for maintaining investment portfolios amid economic uncertainty.

Brian Burke, a veteran multifamily investor and author of "The Hands-Off Investor," shares his insights on the shifting real estate landscape. He discusses why the multifamily market might be bottoming out and what that means for buyers. Burke highlights the potential for small multifamily properties to be lucrative investments. He also delves into the challenges facing the market, including loan maturities and rising expenses, and predicts that by 2027, there could be a significant reversal in trends.

Recent tariff announcements have sparked fears of a stock market crash, yet a silver lining for real estate investors is the fall in mortgage rates. As economic uncertainty drives bond buying, rates may see further declines. The discussion highlights the profound impact of tariffs on global trade, particularly on reconstruction costs. Insights into investment strategies during market volatility are provided, encouraging calm decision-making amidst potential stagflation risks. The speakers detail the importance of adapting to shifting economic landscapes and protecting one's portfolio.

Mortgage delinquencies are rising, but the panic may be overblown. A popular chart seems alarming, yet it reveals trends expected with rising interest rates. The housing market is becoming a buyer's paradise with increasing inventory and potential price drops. Historically, real estate remains less volatile than stocks, providing some reassurance. Strategies for homebuyers to leverage these conditions are discussed, emphasizing opportunities amidst the current economic climate.

Lance Lambert, a data journalist and founder of ResiClub, dives deep into the current real estate landscape. He discusses how fluctuating housing inventory is reshaping markets, revealing where prices are skydiving and where sellers still reign supreme. The talk also explores rising construction costs and their implications for market dynamics, alongside an intriguing look at investment opportunities as demand shifts. Lance uncovers essential trends every buyer and investor should watch—could now be the perfect moment to enter the market?

Florida is pushing to eliminate property taxes, aiming to combat skyrocketing housing costs and improve affordability for homeowners. If successful, other states might follow suit, potentially reshaping the tax landscape across the country. The discussion includes the financial feasibility of such a bold move and its implications for public services and infrastructure. There’s also a deep dive into how these reforms could boost buyer demand and influence the real estate market. Will Floridians reap the rewards or face unforeseen consequences?